The Minnesota Timberwolves (31-27) and Oklahoma City Thunder (46-10) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will broadcast live on NBA TV.
The Thunder are 12-point favorites over the Wolves on the spread (Thunder -12), with the over/under set at 229 total points. Oklahoma City is a -700 favorite to win outright, while Minnesota is +500 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Timberwolves vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Monday, February 24.
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Picks, Prediction
Spread
This line is a bit of a head-scratcher, considering the two teams just played a day ago, with the Timberwolves covering as a nine-point underdog. Even if we give the Thunder three points for homecourt advantage, the familiarity of the opponent makes Minnesota a worthy option at +12.5 or better.
Moneyline
Oklahoma City is the likely winner in this matchup, but with moneyline odds as high as -700, I have no interest in taking a position with the home favorite.
Over/Under
The total is particularly intriguing because the double-digit spread means we're almost getting a discount on Minnesota's ability to put up points. Thus, while my model projects a total of 228.5 points, I'm more bullish on the Timberwolves going over their team total of 106.5.
My Pick: Timberwolves Team Total Over 106.5 (-115)
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Odds
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12 -110 | 229 -110o / -110u | +500 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12 -110 | 229 -110o / -110u | -700 |
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder spread: Thunder -12
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder over/under: 229 total points
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder moneyline: Timberwolves -700, Thunder +500
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder best bet: Timberwolves Team Total Over 106.5
My Thunder vs. Timberwolves best bet is on Minnesota to go over its team total of 106.5 points, with the best line currently available at DraftKings. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Preview
The Thunder enter this game as the best defensive team in the league, posting a 104.8 Rating. However, they've still been a profitable team for Over bettors, with a 30-26-1 (53.6%) mark.
As good as Oklahoma City has been in recent years, its win percentage against the Timberwolves is just .500 over their last 10 meetings.
One observation is that Minnesota can succeed in forcing OKC out of its comfort zone. For example, in the previous meeting, the Timberwolves connected on 18 of theirs 45 3-pointers (40%), while the Thunder countered with a 19-of-35 (54.3%) performance.
Minnesota guard Anthony Edwards has made it abundantly clear that his aggressiveness from beyond the arc is here to stay. Edwards is averaging 10.3 3-point attempts per game, up from 6.7 last season.
To his credit, Edwards is shooting 40.9% from the perimeter, so it's hard to fault his decision. On Sunday, he attempted the most 3-pointers of any player on the court with 13.
Given how quickly Edwards can heat up, I suspect there's always a bit of pressure on the opponent to try and match his efficiency.
As a result, the Thunder can easily get dragged into a 3-point shootout like we saw a day ago.
Thus, given that the Timberwolves are such heavy underdogs, they might need to shoot their way back into the game if they find themselves trailing by a significant deficit.
Minnesota trailed by as many as 19 points against OKC, and our analysis adds credence to a potential game script where the Timberwolves exceed their team total of 106.5 points.
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Prediction
Oklahoma City isn't a great rebounding team, ranking 14th overall with 44.5 per game. While the Timberwolves are slightly worse at 44.2, it's worth noting that Minnesota has won the rebounding battle in all three of their matchups this season.
The Thunder's inability to control the glass might explain why the Timberwolves are more likely to dictate the game from the perimeter. Therefore, targeting some Timberwolves players using their rebounding props makes sense.
Edwards is one player who could offer value, as he has cleared his rebounding prop of 6.5 (-106) in five straight games when facing a bottom-10 defense for rebounds allowed to opposing shooting guards. OKC certainly fits this criteria, and Edwards has also exceeded this prop in three straight meetings against the Thunder.
Another Minny player who could be in line for a productive night on the glass is Nickeil Alexander-Walker. The Virginia Tech alum has benefited from an uptick in playing time, averaging 33.5 minutes over his last seven games—up from his season average of 24.9.
Alexander-Walker is another shooting guard that offers a perimeter threat, as he's shooting 40.4% on 3-point attempts. Hence, if the Timberwolves opt for smaller rotations with more guards, Alexander-Walker will be in a decent position to surpass his points+rebounds prop of 14.5 (-114).
The Canadian guard has exceeded this projection in five of his last six games against a bottom-10 defense for rebounds allowed to off-guards. Combining both player props at FanDuel would help boost our odds to +223.
Best Bet: Timberwolves Team Total Over 106.5 (-115)
Same Game Parlay Picks
- Anthony Edwards over 6.5 rebounds
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker over 14.5 points+rebounds
Parlay Payout: +223
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Betting Trends
