The Minnesota Timberwolves (12-10) and Golden State Warriors (13-9) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. EST at Chase Center in San Francisco. The game will be broadcast live on NBA League Pass.
The Warriors are 1-points favorites over the Timberwolves on the spread (Warriors -1), with the over/under set at 216 total points. Golden State is a -115 favorite to win outright, while Minnesota is -105 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Timberwolves vs. Warriors predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, December 8.
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Picks, Prediction
Spread
This is the second game between these two teams in the last three days, playing both games at the Chase Center, home of the Warriors. The spread for this game came out at Warriors +1, but that was an overreaction to the last game where the Wolves won by 17.
In these mini-baseball series schedule spots the NBA has adopted to reduce travel, we often see a 1-1 split, so I LOVE backing the Warriors at home here. The spread is now -1 or -1.5, I am fine playing either of those numbers for a full unit.
Moneyline
The moneyline on the Warriors side is -115, and the Wolves is -105 at the best available prices. The movement onto or off of 1-point spreads in the NBA is worth between 5-6 cents, so I am willing to play the ML for -115 instead of the -1, as the insurance is slightly of value.
Teams finishing separated by a 1-point margin is the 13th most common outcome in the NBA, so while it is not an overly common result because of late game fouling, it is still worth taking the insurance when it is of good value.
Over/Under
The total is set at 216, and has been pretty flat in the market since the open. But I really tend to think this is an over spot.
I will bring back the scheduling quirk and the mini-baseball series reference here (second straight matchup between teams in same location), and I tend to always play the total back in the direction of the previous close.
The first game closed at 220, and while it went way under, the 4-point drop is an overreaction to one game in the same way the Wolves opening at -1 was also an overreaction. This total should climb before tipoff.
My Pick: Warriors ML (-115)
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Odds
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 216 -110 / -110 | -105 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 216 -110 / -110 | -115 |
- Timberwolves vs Warriors spread: Warriors -1
- Timberwolves vs Warriors over/under: 216 points
- Timberwolves vs Warriors moneyline: Warriors -115, Wolves -105
- Timberwolves vs Warriors best bet: Warriors ML -115
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Preview
I watched the entire 48 minutes of the game on Friday night, and the consistent theme was that the Warriors were making errant passes that resulted in a ton of turnovers.
If not for the Warriors' turnovers, I believe Game 1 of this set was both a Warriors spot and an over spot.
Considering the quality of coaching with Steve Kerr, and that Draymond Green will likely be re-inserted into the starting lineup, there will be a stronger leadership presence on the court and less simple mistakes for Golden State this time around.
Taking care of the ball will create more shot opportunities for the Warriors. The Wolves won by 17, but it felt like it should have been more, and it was a close game until the Wolves pulled away late.
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Prediction
My favorite position in this game is the Warriors moneyline at -115. It is fair price for insurance, it follows the best way to cap the scheduling quirk, and it is backing a historically dominant home team with the best player on the court and the better coach.
The Warriors should also be healthier for this game, as Draymond came off the bench in their previous matchup in a return from injury.
We should see more minutes of the Warriors best lineup, leading to less turnovers, more scoring, better defense, and likely a win.
The Warriors started the season so strong, the Wolves started slow. However, these teams are now only separated by one game in the Western Conference standings. Look for the Warriors to come out with emphasis to reestablish the gap.
Best Bet: Warriors Moneyline (-115)
Same Game Parlay: Alternate Spread – Warriors -4.5, Over 216 (+360)
Warriors vs Timberwolves Betting Trends
