Check out this post for updated season win total odds and this post for my other 29 season win total picks.
All odds as of Friday. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Toronto Raptors Win Total
The Case for the Over (46, Westgate)
The Raptors have hit their over on win totals the last eight years in a row.
Sorry, let me speak louder to make sure you got that.
THE RAPTORS HAVE HIT THEIR OVER FOR WIN TOTALS THE LAST EIGHT FRIGGIN’ YEARS IN A ROW.
We’ve seen consistently teams like Utah, San Antonio and Memphis back before the bottom fell out have win totals suppressed by a lack of action. They typically go lower. The Raptors lost Kawhi Leonard, and now all of a sudden a team with a killer record without Leonard are a 6- to 8-seeded team? Really?
I was prepared to hedge a lot more on this before the Kyle Lowry extension reports began to circulate. If the Raptors are going to keep Lowry for another year, it takes blowing up this season off the table unless things go horribly wrong.
They return a former DPOY in Marc Gasol, fresh off a gold medal win in FIBA as the team’s best player. Serge Ibaka comes back. They have young guys, too, in developing star Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby, along with Fred “I single-handedly won the Eastern Conference Finals… no really” VanVleet.
They have the 25th-ranked strength of schedule before the All-Star break and 30th in January.
This is the core of a 50-win team that lost the player that put them on a 60-win pace. They’re still really good. The fact that everyone has written them off, despite being the defending champions, is evident as motivation.
The Case for the Under (46.5, PointsBet)
Hangover season!
Seven of the last 10 defending champions have hit the under. The Raptors had the most emotionally cathartic championship since the 2011 Mavs (who also went under the following season, by the way). How do you get back up for that January game vs. Orlando after that?
Lowry, Gasol and Ibaka are all over 30. Gasol played until June, celebrated until July, won a gold medal in FIBA in mid-August and then headed straight into the season.
Siakam was great last year; does he really have another gear? They had to take some shots in free agency, bringing in Stanley Johnson and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson.
The Raptors open with seven of 11 on the road and finish with six of their final nine on the road.
They know they can win in the playoffs, even without Leonard. They’ll either be too worn out from last year or too patient with an eye on the postseason.
The Verdict
- The pick: Over 46
- Confidence: 5 out of 10
Would have been nice to get in on this back when Kawhi was still possible to return. The number before his decision was 52.5.
This number’s just too sharp. I like the over at 45.5 and get nervous at 46.5. The Lowry extension pushes me to over since it takes a fire sale rebuild off the board, but I can’t get excited about it.
