Tuesday's NBA slate has two national TV games on TNT — the Miami Heat vs. the Dallas Mavericks and the New Orleans Pelicans vs. the Phoenix Suns.
Our Action Network NBA staff has you covered with a best bet for each of those two games, plus another best bet on the Kings vs. Jazz matchup.
Our NBA analysts break down their best bets below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks
Roberto Arguello: The Mavs lead the league in Win Differential (the difference between the number of games they have won against the number of games they are expected to have won given their efficiency differential) at 2.1, and I love this spot to capitalize on their overperformance in the win column against a Heat team that has been playing the best basketball in the NBA.
The Heat are 5-1 because of their stingy defense that leads the league in Defensive Rating at 95.8 (excluding garbage time, per Cleaning The Glass). This has helped the Heat lead the league in both Spread Differential (+13.8) and Point Differential (+16.3) while playing the fourth-toughest schedule to date.
The Mavericks, who generate the fewest transition opportunities in the NBA, will have an uphill battle against the Heat in the halfcourt without Kleber, especially if Adebayo plays. Furthermore, the Mavericks defense will take a bigger step back than the offense with Kleber out.
The Heat are firing on all cylinders, and as a short underdog, I love their value on the road after two consecutive days off. The Heat have surprisingly been dominant so far this season without even shooting the ball well as they have relied on their defense while making just 34.3% of their 3s.
The Heat have one of the elite coaches in the NBA in Eric Spoelstra while the Mavs have … Jason Kidd.
Take the Heat at -2 (with value down to -3.5) as I would expect the line to continue moving in the Heat’s favor on Tuesday after they opened as underdogs, especially if Adebayo plays.
I recommend betting one unit on the Heat if Adebayo is out, but if he plays, I will be betting 1.5 units on Miami. Expect the Mavericks to get exposed in their first game against a legitimate playoff team since they were eviscerated by the Hawks 113-87 in their opener.
Sacramento Kings vs. Utah Jazz
Joe Dellera: Rudy Gobert has started his season off strong averaging 16.3 points per game. Tonight the Jazz take on the Kings in a game that has some blowout potential, so there’s risk there, but the Kings give up the third-most points in the paint per game (52.3), per NBA Advanced Stats.
Gobert’s prop line is set at 13.5, and it’s still too low. He has cleared this line in five of six games this season including a 17 point game against the Kings on Oct. 22. This is a good matchup for Rudy, and I expect him to cross the 13.5 point threshold again.
Sacramento Kings vs. Utah Jazz
Brandon Anderson: The Utah Jazz are a regular season juggernaut, and we should treat them like one.
The Jazz simply take care of mediocre and bad teams like it's nothing, and that's exactly what I'm expecting from them tonight. We used to see this with the Milwaukee Bucks. For all the playoff questions surrounding Milwaukee before last year, they were an absolutely dominant regular season team for years.
One of my favorite bets on the board was anytime the Bucks were a single-digit favorite, because they won so many regular season games comfortably by double digits.
The Jazz are the new Bucks in that way. Everyone is so worried about the Jazz playoff foibles that we forget to just smash them in the regular season when they're killing everyone.
Utah is awesome on defense with Rudy Gobert — in the regular season!! — and the offense remains great and bombs from deep. The Jazz are way better than the Kings. Everybody knows that. The question is just whether they cover a game like this.
The numbers say that they do. Last season, Utah was favored by 5.0 to 9.5 points 30 times. They covered in 21 of them, and they've covered in all three such games this season too.
That's a 73% cover rate, and that includes a cover in Sacramento against these very Kings not even two weeks ago. And when you factor in Utah playing on their home court, the advantage becomes nearly invincible, with Utah 13-2 ATS in those games.
With teams like the Jazz, I don't even blink at a line in this range. Utah is the better team and has proven time and again it will take care of business against a team it far outclasses like Sacramento.
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Phoenix Suns
Matt Moore: Time for the buyback.
I wrote on how unders have been killing it, and despite the books saying they're not going to over adjust, they have absolutely started to adjust. A week ago, three of the five games had totals above 220. This Tuesday? Just one of the five games has a 220+ total (and I'm betting the under there, but nonetheless).
This, though, is an overcorrection. These two teams are 21st and 22nd respectively in Adjusted Defensive Rating. Phoenix is 10th in Pace and in their last four games, the Pelicans are 11th in Offensive Rating.
The Suns have been shaky to start, but this is a get-right spot; I wouldn't be surprised to see a 115-120 score from them alone.
This number opened at 217, and it's headed in the opposite direction which always makes you nervous. But I continue to think this is an overreaction to the under trend, and I'd play this number to 218.
