Now that we have passed the NBA All-Star break, it's an ideal time to check back in with the NBA Futures market, and specifically, regular-season win total numbers.
I'll be going through every single team over the next few days and reviewing their preseason win total, their current record, their win total pace, the remaining strength of schedule, and the current number we can bet. Through this analysis, we will determine which teams are the best bets.
This is also important analysis for anyone with a pending win totals ticket. I highly encourage you to check with the team you already bet and look for the possibility of opening a middle or even double down. In some cases, these are great options to either reduce the risk floor or increase the payout ceiling.
The second batch of teams will be the current play-in teams, 7-10 seeds, from the Eastern Conference. These include the Miami Heat, Orlando Magic, Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks. Let’s dive in.
Miami Heat
- Preseason Win Total: 45.5
- Current Record: 30-25 (.545)
- Win Total Pace: 45-37
- Current Odds: 45.5 (-130o / +105u)
- Strength of Schedule: Fourth-Easiest
Plan of Action: Proceed with Caution
Planning for the Miami Heat to round into form in the back half of the season is a tale as old as time. They're exactly on pace with their preseason expectations despite a bumpy ride with a rash of injuries and enduring a lengthy losing streak.
However, they turned it around before the break, winning six of their final eight with the two losses coming against the Boston Celtics and L.A. Clippers. Now, they have the fourth-easiest schedule down the stretch, playing against a lot of eastern conference foes and trying to climb out of the play-in and secure a playoff spot.
Jimmy Butler is expected to come back after the break, and the Heat should roll. I tend to lean over here, but its steep juice at -130, and the on/off play of their star player should be cause for pause in a futures market.
It may make more sense to just play them in games when they're at full strength and slightly undervalued.
Orlando Magic
- Preseason Win Total: 37.5
- Current Record: 30-25 (.545)
- Win Total Pace: 45-37
- Current Odds: 45.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Strength of Schedule: Easiest
Plan of Action: Open the Middle
I'll be looking to fade the Orlando Magic in the back end of the season, as youth and inexperience rear their ugly heads.
This Magic team did nothing at the trade deadline, and while that's OK for their long-term plans, there will be short-term ramifications. They needed a veteran point guard presence and more wing shooting.
They were linked to players like Dejounte Murray and Luke Kennard but didn't move the chips to get either. They want to see what they have, which is going to mean tough play in games.
I don't want to play the under outright here because of the easy strength of schedule ranking, but if I had an existing over, now would be the time to open the eight-game middle and hope for a little regression.
I plan to fade them in competitive games.
Chicago Bulls
- Preseason Win Total: 37.5
- Current Record: 26-29 (.473)
- Win Total Pace: 39-43
- Current Odds: 37.5 (-125o / +100u)
- Strength of Schedule: 14th-Easiest
Plan of Action: Is This an Ugly Over?
The Chicago Bulls are what the kids call “mid.”
Not only do they play in the Midwest, but they also hover in the middle of the standings each and every year, making no moves that propel them in either franchise-altering direction.
The Bulls were reportedly offered a sizable overpay for Alex Caruso and turned it down, and they didn't deal DeMar DeRozan despite the fact he's headed for free agency.
The Bulls are signaling they want to win, and the gross truth of the matter is there may be value for bettors. They're on a current win total pace of 39 wins with a moderate remaining strength of schedule.
The discounted win total is likely due to the loss of Zach Lavine, but the team hasn't had its record impacted much by his absence.
The Bulls hover like they always do. I'm interested in a small over play on the Windy City team.
Atlanta Hawks
- Preseason Win Total: 42.5
- Current Record: 24-31 (.436)
- Win Total Pace: 36-46
- Current Odds: 37.5 (+100o / -125u)
- Strength of Schedule: 15th-Easiest
Plan of Action: The Market Can't Leave Them Alone
In the first half of the NBA season, one thing I’ve subtly noticed is the Atlanta Hawks consistently are backed by the sharp market and their opening line gains CLV. Even now in the futures market, they're priced 1.5 games above their current pace despite making no changes at the deadline and remaining relatively healthy all season.
I can’t confidently suggest a play in either direction besides noticing that line-movers continue to back Atlanta, which is worth keeping an eye on down the stretch.
If we can find some good plus-money situations, especially at home against competitive teams, look to back Atlanta game to game and skip the win total.
