Utah Jazz Win Total Odds
The Case for the Over
- Sneakily Too Good to Tank
- Total Dropped a Bit Too Much
It was fun in the days after the Rudy Gobert and then later Donovan Mitchell trades to see the reactions to this team. The expectation was, “they traded everything, they’re going to be horrible, worst record in the league!”
OK, but the thing is, to trade those guys, the Jazz had to take contracts back, and the only players that can have big enough contracts to take back are players that are inherently worth those contracts, at least by some evaluation.
I’ve had several conversations with bettors who literally forgot various players are still on the roster. Mike Conley is still on the roster. Lauri Markkanen, who was great on the Cavs and in EuroBasket this summer, is still on the roster.
Rudy Gay is still on the roster. Jordan Clarkson is still on the roster. They have young guys like Ochai Agbaji, Jared Butler, Collin Sexton, Udoka Azubuike (who I really liked in limited minutes last season), and Walker Kessler.
Look, I don’t know what to tell you; that’s a lot of NBA guys.
And yes, the Jazz will absolutely look to trade those guys for picks. But the trade market has been put through a strainer over the last three years. Teams are bereft of picks; OKC, New Orleans, Houston, and Utah already own a ton of them.
There might be a team that loses its point guard and gets desperate enough to pick up Mike Conley’s contract. Will there be that team and a team that wants Markkanen and wants Clarkson and will take Gay or Kelly Olynyk?
And in the meantime, can well-regarded new coach Will Hardy get them to sneak up on 13 teams in the first 40 games?
This number dropped from 32.5 after the Rudy Gobert trade to 23.5 after the Mitchell trade. Some of that, to be sure, is anticipating the direction of the team in pursuit of draft equity.
But is losing Donovan Mitchell worth nine wins?
Are Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Royce O’Neale worth a drop from a 50-win total to 23.5?
That’s a big drop.
The Case for the Under
- They Aren't Being Subtle Here
- The Markey Knows
Look, they may have taken back decent players but everybody knows the deal. The players in Utah know what the intent is. And that will wear on players as they look out for their own futures. They know Utah is not invested in them long-term. They know they’re trade bait.
Let’s not pretend like this team is going to be good. The trade market may be rough, but eventually, they’ll just start shelving guys with “hamstring soreness” or whatever.
They will get to where they need to go to get the pick they need to restart the franchise. These guys are all, “hey, that guy’s not as bad/irrelevant as people think!” That’s not a recipe for going over.
Also, the market knows when a team is gonna plummet. When a win total drops to 10 or fewer losses than the previous actual wins mark, the under is 16-9. The market knows when a team had indicated it is rebuilding.
Jazz Win Total Bet
Over the last 10 years, 24 is a key number. In that span, teams with a win total between 24 and 28 are 10-5 to the over. The Jazz are right in the middle.
This is legitimately a battle between a team that isn’t horrible enough to be sub-20-wins without borderline-fineable tanking and isn’t good enough to trust.
You can take a flyer on the worst record when that comes out, and them to finish fifth in the division (essentially “will they be worse than OKC”) at -105. But in general, I think this is a number to stay away from.
