Check out this post for updated season win total odds and this post for my other 29 season win total picks.
All odds as of Friday. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Utah Jazz Win Total
The Case for the Over (53.5, PointsBet)
They’ve gone over in seven of their last 10 seasons. Like the Spurs and Raptors, the number is always too conservative based on the low amount of action they receive. They’re the anti-Lakers.
They’re exceptionally well-coached, and you can count on their defense. They’ve been top-10 in Defensive Rating each of the past four seasons.
Their issue has been offense, and they overhauled that this summer. Mike Conley gives them a floor general who is just as good as Ricky Rubio at defense but can also space the floor next to Donovan Mitchell.
Bojan Bogdanovic gives them versatility at multiple positions and another crack shooter on the perimeter who can create his own shot.
Ed Davis isn’t Derrick Favors, but he’s the kind of player who sets great screens, can pass big-to-big and makes winning plays. He’s a high plus-minus dude.
Their offense will improve; the defense will still be great.
Even after Team USA, I’m bullish on Donovan Mitchell. He struggled early and then recovered later in the year. He still has so much room to grow.
The Jazz have all the makings of a regular-season dynamo. They have 13 games at home against opponents on a back-to-back. Compare that number to just six for the Denver Nuggets. They finished 30-11 against teams under .500, and that’s after losing to Memphis twice in the first month of the season.
Their schedule is tough, but it’s tough early when teams are trying to figure things out.
Let’s go. I have them tied with the Rockets for the best regular-season record in the league.
The Case for the Under (54.5, FanDuel)
They have the fifth-toughest schedule before the All-Star break. They travel the most miles of any team in the league this season.
Also, this team is an analytics dream, but who’s going to carry them? Mitchell hasn’t shown himself ready; go watch FIBA if you want to know how that worked out. Conley is extremely injury-prone and in his mid-30s. Gobert has no ability to create offense on his own. They’re undersized: only Gobert, Davis, and Tony Bradley are over 6-10.
Their backup point guard going into camp is Emmanuel Mudiay. Yikes.
The Jazz can have a great season and fall well short of this figure.
The Verdict
- The pick: Over 53.5
- Confidence: 5 out of 10
The Jazz are historically underrated and have the model of a great regular-season team. Their playoff hopes are entirely different. You can also hedge against this by taking Denver and/or Portland to win the Northwestern division at +140 and +300, respectively.
But their combination of consistency, talent, coaching and upside is enough to trust them to hit mid-50s and above.
