Game 4: Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers Betting Odds
- Spread: Warriors -3.5
- Over/Under: 220
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: ESPN
- Series Score: Warriors Lead 3-0
>> All odds as of Sunday evening. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and live win probabilities on your bets.
The Warriors came storming back in Game 3 to easily win and cover against the tired Blazers.
Will Golden State close it out in Game 4 or can Portland extend the series? Our experts weigh in.
Betting Trends to Know
Monday night will be the ninth potential sweep opportunity for the Warriors under Steve Kerr. The Warriors are 5-3 straight up and against the spread in those games, but their spread of -3.5 is the lowest of any of those previous eight road games. — Evan Abrams
The Warriors enter Game 4 in Portland with a chance to sweep the Blazers. Golden State has won five consecutive games entering this potential sweep opportunity after closing out the Rockets in six games in the Western Conference Semifinals.
Since 2005, teams that are on at least a five-game winning streak entering Game 4 with an opportunity to sweep are 26-11 SU and 20-15-2 ATS. The Warriors have been in this spot six times and are 4-2 SU and ATS, with their two losses coming against the Cavaliers and Rockets. — Abrams
Remember the very profitable first-half trend on the Blazers in Game 3? Well, that angle disappears when teams go down 0-3 at home in Game 4. Those teams are 29-25-1 (53.7%) against the first-half spread. Compare that to the 79-38-1 (67.5%) record in Game 3s when teams are down just 0-2.
The one first-half trend going in the Blazers' favor? In the regular season and playoffs under Terry Stotts, Portland is 43-28-1 (60.6%) against the first-half spread at home after losing at home in its previous game. Stotts is the second-most profitable coach in the Bet Labs database in this spot behind just George Karl. –– Abrams
The Blazers blew a 13-point halftime lead in Game 3 and are now down 0-3 to the Warriors in the Western Conference Finals. What should bettors expect from Portland on the verge of being swept? Since 2005, teams down 0-3 have gone 21-41 SU and 25-34-3 ATS in Game 4. — John Ewing
Locky: How I'm Betting Game 4
Well, the good news is I was right about Golden State in Game 3, but the bad news is this entire round of the playoffs might be a huge dud. As it turns out, the Warriors and Bucks are, as the market indicated, better than their opponents.
We may have a week without basketball … brace yourselves.
As for this game, I see absolutely no reason to go against the Warriors. As you see from the trends above, there really is no such thing as a motivational edge for a team down 3-0, and it may actually be a hindrance.
Portland has never been this far before with this group, and the fatigue of this playoff run is evident in its play, especially Damian Lillard, who really hasn’t been able to find positive contributions for stretches of these games.
This Curry-led Warriors team is on an incredible roll and seems very interested in playing extremely hard every night. When Draymond Green gives you that level of effort in a game that isn’t particularly meaningful compared to the rest, it says something. I expect an equally motivated Warriors group to close out the series Monday night, and I like the small number with Golden State. –Ken Barkley
Mears: How I'm Handicapping Tonight's Game
I'm in agreement with Locky here, and the trends about teams up 3-0 in a series ATS are compelling.
The Blazers just don't match up well with the Warriors at all. The Dubs have a ton of guys to throw at Lillard, including a primary defender in Klay Thompson who has done a masterful job this series at hounding him. They're sending double teams and pushing him way out on the perimeter to start possessions.
The toll on Lillard, who has played a ton of guys in a short span, is evident. He's clearly settling…
And even when he doesn't and penetrates, he's really unable to get a ton of separation. He gets a step on Thompson here, but look at how little elevation he gets on this layup.
This is an easy block:
The Blazers came out strong in the first half of Game 3, but a lot of that was unsustainable play from the bench guys like Meyers Leonard. That obviously didn't hold up over the course of the game, and the Warriors went on to dominate the second half and easily cover on the road.
There aren't really any adjustments left to be made by the Blazers, and I'm not sure they can just magically play better. They're winded — especially Lillard — and this every other night playoff schedule is proving to be incredibly tiresome.
The Warriors have found a groove without Kevin Durant, and a big part of that is Green becoming more involved as a playmaker. There's an old adage in basketball that a big man is likely to be more involved defensively if they're included on the offensive end. I don't know if that's true with Green, but he's certainly stepped up lately.
Given all of these factors, I'm hard pressed to bet on a Blazers cover and think it's more likely the Dubs close this one out with another cover. — Bryan Mears
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.
