The Highlights
- A sweep is brewing in Cleveland. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are unlikely to miss as many wide-open shots in Game 4.
- Outside of making a few more 3s, Cleveland can't play much better than it did in Game 3.
- Look for the Warriors to win — and win big.
Well, the fourth quarter of Game 3 was really no fun for the over, as it was the lowest scoring quarter of the game by five points (despite the flurry to close). The Cavs' 3-point shooting was much worse than I expected (9-of-13 at home … yikes), and Steph Curry and Klay Thompson combined to shoot a woeful 7-of-27 overall and 3-of-15 from 3.
Anyway, despite all those negatives, the Warriors found a way to win and it’s 3-0, and I would say that makes this series a foregone conclusion, but if you’ve been reading my stuff, you know it always was anyway. The debate was always 4-0 vs. 4-1, and now we are inching closer to one and away from the other.
I really think a sweep is brewing.
The market opened Warriors -5.5 and it has moved down in the 4.5-5 range as of this writing. I will be on the Warriors here, for a reason that might really defy logic: I don’t think they can play any worse than they did in Game 3.
Yes, Kevin Durant carried the team to a win by hitting basically every jumper for 48 minutes. But the idea that Klay and Steph are going to play like that two games in a row, when their poor performance had zero to do with the opposing team’s defense, is unreasonable.
They missed pretty much every conceivable shot, and these were the type of shots they don't just make; they LOOK FOR. They even missed a few lay-ups, for good measure.
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If the Splash Brothers even have a little positive regression, this could be a laugher, given how many quality looks the Warriors' role players are getting. I mean, they're all basically getting three dunks per game, and those aren’t really percentages that regress. These looks are the result of scheme, system and execution, combined with lack of execution from the other team. That’s just what happens when these teams play. Every time.
I really don’t think Cleveland can play that much better than in Game 3, aside from hitting a few more 3s. But when you look at the box score, LeBron and JR Smith are taking basically all the 3s (16 of 31 attempts in Game 3), so is positive regression really happening in that case? They’re probably shooting about the mean they should be shooting given the looks and the players involved. Even Rodney Hood playing the game of his life in Game 3 wasn’t enough. That’s where we’re at in this series.
Cleveland money came in big-time in Game 3, and I believe there were some Warriors -3s floating around near game time, which is wild. Early money would suggest a move down is coming again, and if so, I’ll be waiting as long as possible, though 4.5 is fine for me too. I honestly don’t think a specific spread in this area will matter much. Look for the Warriors to win — and win big.
More Coverage of Game 4
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- Game 4 Attracting Sneaky Wiseguy Attention
- Mears: Keep Betting the Warriors 3Q Line
- Download Our FREE Game 4 Props Sheet
- Game 4 Trends: Pay Attention to Spread Dollars on the Warriors
- Profitable First-Half System for Game 4
- Warriors Open at -5.5 to Clinch Third Title in Four Years
