The Golden State Warriors own a 3-0 lead over the Dallas Mavericks in the Western Conference Finals entering Tuesday's Game 4.
We have plenty of betting angles that apply to this particular situation.
Although tonight is a do-or-die scenario for the Mavs, relying on the narrative that the trailing team "wants it more" hasn't necessarily paid off.
Teams down 0-3 in a playoff series are just 20-30-3 (40%) against the spread and 14-39 straight-up since 2005.
Oddly enough, teams trailing 0-3 in a postseason series are profitable in the first half, covering 52.8% of tries. Bettors uncomfortable playing Dallas on the full game spread — the Mavericks are one-point favorites Tuesday — could potentially veer to the first-half market.
The Warriors have lost against the spread in the first half in each of the last three sweep opportunities against conference opponents: 2022 vs. Denver, 2019 vs. Portland and 2018 vs. San Antonio.
The Mavericks outscore foes by 2.4 points in the first half this season, the seventh-best mark in basketball. Golden State, meanwhile, is +1.1.
Elsewhere, the total deserves some attention, too.
Since 2015, when the road team has a chance to sweep, the over is 16-8, cashing by 7.1 points per game. Tuesday's consensus number is 215.5 (you can shop around for the best price here).
After Dallas took three of four both straight-up and against the spread versus Golden State during the regular season, the Dubs have rattled off three straight covers.
Tuesday's Game 4 tips off at 9 p.m. ET.
