The player prop highlighted below is for Game 5 of the 2019 NBA Finals on Monday night:
- Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors: 9 p.m. ET (ABC)
As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 1:30 p.m. ET. View live odds here.
Raptors C Serge Ibaka
THE PICK: Over 5.5 Rebounds (-114)
Ibaka is averaging exactly 5.5 rebounds per game in this series, but that figure sells him a bit short.
As I mentioned in our DFS breakdown, Ibaka is capable of putting up big numbers in limited action. Rebounding is a prime example: Despite playing an average of only 21.0 minutes this postseason, Ibaka is gobbling up 6.1 boards per contest and has grabbed at least six in 12-of-22 (54.5%) playoff games.
If you extend that back to include regular-season games in which Ibaka has come off the bench since the Raptors acquired Marc Gasol, Ibaka has pulled down at least six boards in 23-of-36 (63.8%) games.
I would put Ibaka's true odds of grabbing six-plus somewhere in the middle of the two aforementioned rates and would bet over 5.5 up to -150.
This prop is rated a perfect 10 in Bet Quality by our props tool (59% win rate this season) with a 26% difference between projected and implied total.
I usually throw a few more prop picks in the Action Network App throughout the night as I do more research and lineup news trickles in, so be sure to follow me there.
