Warriors vs. Kings Odds
| Warriors Odds | +1 |
| Kings Odds | -1 |
| Over/Under | 229.5 (-108 / -112) |
| Time | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here. | |
Not many would have guessed it before Game 6, but the Golden State Warriors are headed to Sacramento one final time to take on the Kings in what may go down as one of the best first-round series in recent NBA Playoffs memory — if not all time.
Of course, what would really seal its legacy is a Game 7 for the ages.
This Warriors vs. Kings series has been as unpredictable as any, but let's see if we can find any edges for bettors looking for any extra juice on what should already be an incredibly heart-racing affair.
Golden State Warriors
Despite having been in innumerable games with a massive stage, the core-three Warriors–Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Stephen Curry — have been in just four elimination games during the Steve Kerr Era.
In fact, Thompson has been in only three because he was not around for the Game 6 loss in the 2019 Finals. The Warriors are 2-2 in those games, with losses in Game 7 of the 2016 Finals and the aforementioned 2019 Finals. They have wins against the Thunder in the 2016 Western Conference Finals and the Rockets in the 2018 WC Finals.
All four of those games are easily called to mind, but the patterns from them maybe less so. It's a tiny sample, but the theme of Green stepping up to the plate is notable. He averages 16.0 points, 14.0 rebounds and 7.8 assists per game in those elimination games, which is way up from his overall playoff averages of 12.4 points, 9.5 rebounds and 6.8 assists. Even before he was the Draymond we all know today, he tallied 24 points, seven rebounds and three assists in a first-round Game 7 loss in 2014.
But as Chris Paul knows, this ain't 2014 anymore, and Green's last one of these types of games was in 2018. Also, we're talking about a tiny sample.
Still, I like targeting Green's Points + Rebounds + Assists (PRA) prop. In the Warriors' two Game 6 closeout games last season, he averaged 13.0 points, 13.5 rebounds and 8.0 assists. Of course, he's coming off a Game 6 closeout in which he took a grand total of two shots, but we've seen Green vacillate wildly in terms of production before.
Sacramento Kings
The Kings have decidedly not been here before, but that hasn't seemed to scare them at all. In a Game 6 that every viewer outside of the 916 area code had earmarked as an easy Warriors win, the Kings refused to bend the knee and outright smacked the Warriors in the face.
Now they'll get to play in an amped up Golden 1 Center with decades of catharsis built up in the stands.
The Warriors opened as favorites, then sharps moved it the Kings' way — but we're talking the thinnest of margins. Golden State was a one-point favorite, which is where the Kings currently sit. In a game that is close to a coin flip, I am looking to props again instead of a side.
During one of the regular season back-to-backs, I noted that I didn't love betting sides and totals in those games. Why? Because the books got to put the finishing sharp line right back on as the opening line the next night with very few factors changed. These series are like that on steroids. Every player prop has been hammered into line, so while I'm not a big vibes guy in terms of my regular capping, Game 7s are where vibes thrive.
And no one fits the bill more than Malik Monk. The two biggest games of this series for the Kings were Games 1 and 6– the former set the tone and the latter was to stay alive.
It's no surprise those are Monk's two best games, with 32 in Game 1 and 28 in Game 6. He has had no issue being the second guy on this team — Domantas Sabonis, Kevin Huerter and Harrison Barnes have been shrinking in the moment so far.
I see that continuing in Game 7, so I am also going to be on Monk's Points + Rebounds prop.
Warriors-Kings Picks
It's corny as hell to use the phrase HIM in a sports betting preview, so I'll just say that Draymond Green and Malik Monk are both dudes — and I expect both to be up for Game 7.
This tilt is also seeing sharps on the over, which is a tiebreaker in looking for overs for me when capping the game.
Pick 1: Draymond Green over 22.5 PRA (-115) at BetMGM.
Pick 2: Malik Monk over 21.5 Points + Rebounds (-115) at DraftKings.
