Warriors vs. Knicks Picks, Prediction Today
The Golden State Warriors and New York Knicks play on TNT on Thursday, February 29 in the first half of tonight's doubleheader, with tipoff scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. The Warriors are currently 4.5-point favorites (-4.5) with the total 222.5 points scored.
Here's everything you need to know about Warriors vs. Knicks on Thursday, Feb. 29 — our expert Warriors vs Knicks picks and Warriors vs Knicks prediction today.
Pick: Knicks Team Total Under 110.5 Points (-125)
The Knicks' injury report continues to get crowded, as Jalen Brunson was the latest player added after missing Tuesday's game against New Orleans due to neck spasms. New York is already without three starters: Julius Randle (24 PPG), OG Anunoby (15.6 PPG), and Mitchell Robinson (10.3 RPG).
Therefore, the Knicks can ill afford to be without their leading scorer, Brunson (27.7 PPG), when they host the Warriors on Thursday night. Brunson's status remains up in the air as he'll be a game-time decision.
The injury-riddled Knicks have won only three of their last 10 games and could fall to one of the four spots in the Play-In Tournament if they continue to fall at this rate. New York is just 1.5 games ahead of the Pacers. With the team expecting some injury issues to persist for an extended period, the Knicks bolstered their roster by adding Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks at the trade deadline.
Surprisingly, the Knicks aren't exactly an offensive juggernaut despite having a top-eight offensive rating.
New York's strategy is to control the game on one side of the court with its tempo and on the other with its rebounding. And given the injuries to key players, the Knicks' offense is even more deliberate — thus creating an opportunity for bettors to find value with their team total.
Let's get to our Warriors vs. Knicks prediction and pick.
Warriors vs Knicks Prediction
Pick: Knicks Team Total Under 110.5 Points (-125)
Warriors Betting Outlook
While the Knicks are in danger of dropping into the Play-In Tournament, the Warriors are already the 10th seed in the West and hoping to improve their position in the standings. After falling to 19-24 on the year, the Warriors have won 11 of their last 14 games to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Whenever a team starts to play better basketball and go on a bit of a run, you can almost be certain the improved performance is at least partly a result of heightened defensive play. After all, there will always be moments where even a good team has a subpar shooting night. However, if you can play with defensive intensity and commitment, you'll give yourself a chance to overcome even a poor offensive showing.
The Warriors have used their defense to ride this recent surge, and per NBA.com, they have the fourth-best defensive rating over the last 14 games, allowing 109.6 points per 100 possessions.
If we look at the season as a whole, the Warriors rank 18th in defensive efficiency with a 115.8 rating. But to understand how defense is critical to playing winning basketball, you only need to look at Golden State's offensive efficiency during the 14-game stretch. The Warriors' 118.3 offensive rating is less than a point better than their season mark of 117.5.
Those numbers further highlight why Golden State's defense is largely responsible for its resurgence.
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Knicks Betting Outlook
Very few teams get more out of their possessions than the Knicks. New York ranks last in pace with 96.8 possessions per game, and yet, it's still a top-eight team in offensive efficiency with a 117.6 value.
With New York struggling over its last 10 games, you might think their offense took a huge step back due to the injuries. However, New York's offensive rating only dropped to 115.0 during that span.
The biggest surprise for me, in terms of their offense, is the Knicks are playing at an even slower pace, with 92.9 possession per game. I suspect they're trying to slow down the game to mask their weakness defensively.
It's hard to think the addition of one player (Anunoby) could play such a vital role in the Knicks' success when they were at their peak. According to StatMuse.com, the Knicks allow 100.4 points when Anunoby plays compared to 112.9 when he's not in the lineup.
Since New York ranks only 19th in scoring, with 113.8 points per game, it needs its defense to help maintain a positive point differential. But while the Knicks rank 30th in defensive efficiency (122.1 points allowed per 100 possessions) over their last 10 games, they're actually in the top half (13th) of the league in points allowed (113.4) during that span.
To understand how this discrepancy is even possible, you only need to look to New York's sluggish pace of play as the underlying theme.
Warriors vs. Knicks Picks, Odds
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 223 -110 / -110 | -180 |
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 223 -110 / -110 | +150 |
With the Knicks seemingly committed to playing slower and reducing the number of possessions on both sides to protect their defense, we can find a ton of value with the under in their team total prop.
And when you factor in an improved Warriors' defense, New York could struggle to put up points in this game. Per EV Analytics, the Knicks' team total is 9-1 to the under in their last 10 games and 5-0 in the previous five.
I think that trend continues against the Warriors. And at BetMGM, you can bet on New York to stay under its team total of 110.5 points at -125.
Pick: Knicks Team Total Under 110.5 Points (-125)
