NBA First Basket will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day here, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.
Doncic | Brunson | Wiggins
| Prop | Doncic +1200, +2100, +2900 | Brunson +1100 | Wiggins +850 |
| Matchup | Mavericks vs. Warriors |
| Time | 9 p.m. ET |
| Book | FanDuel |
The Warriors will try to close out the Mavericks on Thursday night. Kevon Looney (34% opening-tip win rate) will be taking on Dwight Powell (28% win rate) in the opening tip-off. Powell is 5-3 versus Looney in past two seasons on opening tip-offs, but is just 2-2 during this series.
Dallas scores first 55% of the time on the season. That number is a bit misleading as the Mavericks did really well when Kristaps Porzingis played center. Since the Porzingis trade, Dallas has scored first 43% of the time. Golden State scores first just 37% of the time. In the eight games between the two teams this season, Dallas scored first in five games.
We track early possession usage looking at first three shots a team takes. Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson are combined taking 2.4 of the first three shots over the past 20 games. For that reason, taking Doncic exact methods and pairing Jalen Brunson and Andrew Wiggins with Golden State moneyline gives us good value, as I believe Golden State should win this one.
Picks: Doncic Exact Method – Other +1200 (0.4u) | Doncic Exact Method – 3-Pointer +2100 (0.2u) | Doncic Exact Method – Free Throw +2900 (0.1u) | Brunson First Basket + Golden State Moneyline +1100 (0.4u) | Wiggins First Basket + Golden State Moneyline +850 (0.4u)
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