The Golden State Warriors (12-7) and Denver Nuggets (10-8) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10 p.m. ET from Ball Arena in Denver. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Nuggets are 5-point favorites over the Warriors on the spread (Nuggets -5), with the over/under set at 237 total. Denver is a -185 favorite to win outright, while Golden State is +154 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Warriors vs. Nuggets predictions and NBA picks for Tuesday, December 3.
Warriors vs. Nuggets Picks, Prediction
Spread
There's a slight edge with the Warriors on the road, as my model makes Golden State closer to a 3.5-point underdog.
Moneyline
Although this line is slightly inflated, backing the Warriors as a side on the moneyline is an easy pass for me. The Nuggets have a clear matchup advantage against the Warriors, having won each of the last seven meetings.
Over/Under
Even with this total up to 237 at DraftKings, the Nuggets have taken a significant step back defensively this season. My projection is closer to 237.5, and I'm still hesitant about pulling the trigger.
My Pick: Warriors +5 (-108 at DraftKings) | Play down to +4
Warriors vs Nuggets Odds
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -108 | 237 -115o / -105u | +154 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -112 | 237 -115o / -105u | -185 |
- Warriors vs Nuggets spread: Nuggets -5
- Warriors vs Nuggets over/under: 237 points
- Warriors vs Nuggets moneyline: Nuggets -185, Warriors +154
- Warriors vs Nuggets best bet: Warriors +5 ATS
Warriors vs. Nuggets Preview
After a 12-3 start, Golden State has come down to earth a bit with losses in its last four games. My biggest question with the Warriors this season is whether they can maintain their same level of success, with Stephen Curry averaging roughly four fewer points (22.5) compared to the previous campaign (26.4).
While the Warriors are a deeper team, you could argue that they need someone else to step up and take some pressure off Curry in the scoring department. The future Hall of Famer is clearly on the backend of his career at the age of 36.
Much of Golden State's success has been down to its defense, as they've improved their efficiency rating by almost seven points from 114.5 to 107.7. Warriors head coach Steve Kerr is well aware of his team's shortcomings, and he's not afraid to opt for a smaller and more athletic group of players to partner with Curry in the starting lineup.
The good news for Warriors fans is that if Golden State remains in playoff contention, it'll have enough pieces it can package at the trade deadline to land a star player. It's worth noting that aside from their traditional four starters, Kerr has used seven different players in his lineup off the bench.
Thus, it's clear that he has yet to settle on his best starting five, which suggests there's still room for improvement and more tinkering down the road.
As for the Nuggets, they have Nikola Jokic at his peak, averaging a triple-double (29.6 points 13.2 rebounds and 10.7 assists) thus far this season. Even when the Warriors played with the 6-foot-9 Kevon Looney as a starter, he wasn't a traditional center.
With Looney coming off the bench, the Warriors have even less size available to try and slow down Jokic.
Warriors vs. Nuggets Prediction
Jokic has been a bad matchup for the Warriors, which explains why the Nuggets have won seven straight meetings and eight of their last 10. Denver has the better starting lineup, with four players averaging 15 or more points. Aaron Gordon is back with the team after missing almost a month with a calf injury.
While the Nuggets don't have as much depth on their bench as the Warriors, they're getting steady contributions from Russell Westbrook, Peyton Watson and Julian Strawther, who combine to average 31 points.
One of the more surprising things about Denver is that Jokic is playing even more minutes, averaging 37.5, up from 34.6 a season ago. He's also become more of a perimeter threat, increasing his attempts from 2.9 per game to 4.3 while shooting a blistering 50.8% from behind the arc.
I'm not sure many saw Jokic adding to his bag in this manner, but he's hit at least two 3-pointers in six straight games. He attempted at least seven 3-pointers in three of his last four games, and if he can maintain that level of volume with his shooting prowess, he has an excellent chance of exceeding his prop of 1.5 3-pointers.
Best Bet: Warriors +5 (-108 at DraftKings) | Play down to +4
Same Game Parlay (+134 at FanDuel): Nuggets ML | Nikola Jokic over 1.5 3-pointers
Nuggets vs Warriors Betting Trends
