The Golden State Warriors (11-3) and New Orleans Pelicans (4-12) meet in NBA Cup group play this Friday. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from Smoothie King Center in New Orleans. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Warriors are 10.5-point road favorites over the Pelicans on the spread (Warriors -10.5), with the over/under set at 223.5 total points. Golden State is a -500 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while New Orleans is +360 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Warriors vs. Pelicans predictions and NBA picks for Friday, November 22.
Warriors vs. Pelicans Picks, Prediction
Spread
The Warriors have played themselves into the first seed in the Western Conference after 14 games. The Pelicans, however, have been riddled by injuries (I call them the Shellicans because they are a shell of their expected team), which leads us to a game where the Warriors are 10.5-point road favorites.
These teams have already played twice this season in Golden State, when Zion Williamson was active but Stephen Curry was not. Even with the difference in star player health, the Warriors won both games of the back-to-back set in Golden State.
The Warriors seem to have the Pelicans' number, and have a massive coaching advantage, health advantage and depth advantage. I like the Warriors at -10.5 in this spot.
Moneyline
I simply prefer to play the spread instead of the Warriors moneyline at -500.
There is no way we can take the Pelicans considering their injuries, the Warriors' form this season, and the fact that this is an NBA Cup game where intensity should be increased.
I can see the Warriors running the Pelicans out of their own building, so playing into significant juice at -500 and taking a 31% ROI on a win is not worth it.
Take Warriors -10.5 instead.
Over/Under
The Pelicans are struggling to score without Zion, CJ McCollum, Dejounte Murray and Herb Jones; they even missed Trey Murphy and Brandon Ingram in their last bout in Cleveland on Wednesday.
The latter two, Ingram and Murphy, may be active for this one, but the rest are confirmed to remain out. The Pelicans will struggle to score, while the Warriors play with pace, space, depth and use their speed to try and run up the score.
We have seen Pelicans games trend under in line movement and Warriors games trend over. I think this is a decent spot to play the Warriors' team total to go over, but I would advise avoiding the full game total.
My Pick: Warriors -10.5
Warriors vs Pelicans Odds
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 223.5 -110o / -110u | -500 |
| Pelicans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 223.5 -110o / -110u | +360 |
- Warriors vs. Pelicans spread: Warriors -10.5
- Warriors vs. Pelicans over/under: 223.5 points
- Warriors vs. Pelicans moneyline: Warriors -500, Pelicans +360
- Warriors vs. Pelicans best bet: Warriors -10.5
Warriors vs. Pelicans Preview
The Warriors, who are already 2-0 in NBA Cup play, are likely highly motivated to get this done. The key note is that despite the 2-0 record, they have won those games by a combined eight points – beating the Grizzlies by five and the Mavericks by three.
This is a prime spot for the Warriors to get their third group win and extend their point differential.
There is no team in the Warriors' group (Group C) that is also undefeated, so a win here secures that they are at least tied for the best record and it becomes a points race.
Expect the Warriors to run up the score.
Warriors vs. Pelicans Prediction
The situational spot — needing to increase their point-differential margin — for the Warriors is amazing here. They need the win for Cup purposes, and they are healthy and deep, facing a depleted Pelicans team that they already beat twice without Curry.
I would wait for shootaround reports on Brandon Ingram and Trey Murphy, because if they play we can get an even better Warriors line.
I will be on the Warriors, and if you are interested in a small SGP to take alongside it, the team total over points makes a lot of sense. I suspect we see 48 minutes of pace-up Warriors basketball.
I would recommend a full unit on the Warriors to cover the spread as a straight bet, and then maybe a quarter-unit on the SGP if that's your thing.
Best Bet: Warriors -10.5 (-110)
Same Game Parlay: Warriors -10.5, Warriors Team Total Over 117.5 (+160)
Warriors vs Pelicans Betting Trends
