The Golden State Warriors (48-34) and Houston Rockets (52-30) will face off in Game 1 of their first round NBA Playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Rockets are 1-point favorites over the Warriors on the spread (Rockets -1), with the over/under set at 213 total points. Houston is a -118 favorite to win outright, while Golden State is -102 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Warriors vs. Rockets predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, April 20.
Warriors vs Rockets Prediction, Odds
My Rockets vs. Warriors Game 1 best bet is on Houston to go over its team total of 106.5 points, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Rockets Team Total Over 106.5 (-110)
Warriors vs Rockets Odds, Spread, Total
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 213 -110o / -110u | -102 |
| Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 213 -110o / -110u | -118 |
- Warriors vs. Rockets spread: Rockets -1
- Warriors vs. Rockets over/under: 213 total points
- Warriors vs. Rockets moneyline: Warriors -102, Rockets -118
- Warriors vs. Rockets best bet:Rockets Team Total Over 106.5 (-110)
Warriors vs Rockets NBA Playoffs Game 1 Preview
What a nasty, ugly matchup. The Warriors’ offense certainly isn't a thing of beauty like it used to be; even with Jimmy Butler. They struggle to get the ball to Curry late. The Rockets don’t have a primary initiator. They’ve never been in the playoffs, most of them.
Alperen Sengun should have a big matchup advantage in this series, much to the chagrin of Draymond Green, who had a -6 net rating in this matchup. I won’t be surprised if Jonathan Kuminga plays more than Green by the end of this series. Also don’t be surprised if Draymond tries some shenanigans to get under Sengun’s skin.
Amen Thompson was created in a sci-fi lab to defend Steph Curry. He lock-and-trails as well as any player ever has against Curry.
The Rockets don’t know what they’re doing because they’re inexperienced. The Warriors don’t know how to do what they want to do because their roster is volatile.
I make this game Rockets -1.8, right in line with the spread. There isn’t a matchup that takes me in either direction. I think the Warriors are slightly overvalued in the market, but so are the Rockets. In truth, my model makes this a matchup of pretty flawed teams. Great for entertainment, bad for betting.
However, in the 38 games the Rockets played against top-10 defenses this season, the Rockets’ team total was 21-17 to the over, 55%.
Now, the bad news is that Houston had the 26th-ranked halfcourt offense against top-10 defenses. They are going to need A: transition points and B: second-chance points.
It’s a low figure at 106.5. There’s a good chance this game is in the 90’s. But I’m going to play the Rockets team total over 106.5.
Warriors vs Rockets Betting Predictions
Jimmy Butler Over 21.5 Points (-125)
This is pretty simple. Did you know that the one weakness of the Rockets is isolation defense? They’re 8th-worst in isolation defense. They’re also a team that’s foul-prone, and Butler is a master at getting to the line.
Game to Go to Overtime (+1200)
I gave out overtime for Warriors-Clippers. That hit. I gave out overtime for Clippers-Nuggets. That hit. I gave out overtime for Kings-Mavericks. OK, fine, look, they can’t all be bangers. I make this spread Rockets -1.8. It’s inside two points.
With a spread of Rockets -1.5, I can’t bet a side, but I do think there’s a good chance this comes down to a single possession late.
Warriors vs Rockets Best Bets
- Rockets Team Total Over 106.5 (-110)
- Jimmy Butler Over 21.5 Points (-125)
- Game to Go to Overtime (+1200)
Warriors vs. Rockets Betting Trends
- 59% of bets and 60% of the money are on the Warriors to cover the spread
- 63% of bets and 59% of the money on the moneyline are on the Warriors to win outright
- 93% of bets and 92% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NBA public betting & money percentages page.
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