The Golden State Warriors (12-3) and San Antonio Spurs (8-8) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET from the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio. The game will broadcast live on NBA League Pass.
The Warriors are 2.5-point favorites over the Spurs on the spread (Warriors -2.5), with the over/under set at 227 total points. Golden State is a -140 favorite to win outright, while San Antonio is +120 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Warriors vs. Spurs predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, November 23.
Warriors vs. Spurs Picks, Prediction
Spread
The spread for this game opened at Warriors -4.5 but has come down since the news Victor Wembanyama's is probable to return from a bone bruise.
We saw the spread shift a full two points as he was upgraded from questionable to probable. The Warriors also face the Spurs on the second night of a road back to back. While the Warriors have the talent edge, this is a tough schedule spot on the road.
Moneyline
When the point spread is so low at -2.5, I prefer to play the favorites ATS rather than buy insurance and play the moneyline. If I liked the Spurs side here (I don't), I would combo some +2.5 and some Spurs ML for an escalated payout.
Since 1 and 2 are not very frequent outcomes in the NBA due to late game fouling, just pay -110 and take the spread on favorites, or take some bonus to win outright when playing the underdog. Despite the situational spot being not great for the Warriors, it is baked into a -2.5 spread which to me is a good price to back them.
Over/Under
The total for this game opened at 224 and I played the over. Now with it up to 227, the value is reduced, but I still like the over as the direction.
The Warriors are playing so fast, and while Wemby can control the paint, the Warriors have the ability to attack with perimeter shooting with guys like Steph Curry and Buddy Hield.
My Pick: Warriors -2.5, Over 227
Warriors vs Spurs Odds
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 227 -110 / -110 | -140 |
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 227 -110 / -110 | +120 |
- Warriors vs Spurs spread: Warriors -2.5
- Warriors vs Spurs over/under: 227 points
- Warriors vs Spurs moneyline: Warriors -140, Spurs +120
- Warriors vs Spurs best bet: Warriors -2.5, Over 227
Warriors vs. Spurs Preview
The Spurs are now 2-0 in the recent absence of Victor Wembanyama, which included a road win at OKC and a 20-point comeback win over the Utah Jazz. The Warriors are on the second leg of a road back to back after a win over the New Orleans Pelicans.
The situational spot lines up well for the Spurs, but I view it as an opportunity to buy in on the Warriors at a discounted price.
Based on sheer power rankings, Warriors should be closer to a 5 point favorite in this contest (and we saw that with the opening line at 4.5). They sit atop the west with the best record and wildly out-performing their preseason expectations.
When a team is this strong, let down games becomes rare. They are deep, playing with purpose, and already seeing the fruits of the labor in the early seeding.
Warriors vs. Spurs Prediction
My two best bets for this game are Warriors and the over.
With the return of Wemby, the pace should still stay quick and the game should be perimeter oriented. I expect a high volume of three-point attempts, and therefore, a game that can fly to the over and be controlled by some of the best shooters in NBA history.
If you are looking to the prop market, I would target 3PM for players like Julian Champagnie, Brandin Podziemski, and Steph Castle. The star props are always pricey, but if this is a shooting game these three should also be involved.
Best Bet: Warriors -2.5 (-110), Over 227 (-110)
Same Game Parlay: Warriors -2.5, Over 227, Steph Castle 2+ Three-Pointers (+650)
Warriors vs. Spurs Betting Trends
