There are 11 games on the Wednesday slate in the NBA, and we have you covered from coast to coast.
The Portland Trail Blazers take on the 4-4 Cleveland Cavaliers to start the night at 7 p.m. ET, and the cherry on top of the slate is a high-octane matchup between the upstart Charlotte Hornets and Golden State Warriors on national TV.
We have two different kinds of overs to play on Wednesday night, so let’s get right to it.
NBA Odds & Picks
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Joe Dellera: A key injury for the Cavaliers has opened up additional prop value. Second-year wing, Isaac Okoro, will miss tonight’s game due to a hamstring injury. He’s an excellent defender and his presence will be missed, especially on the perimeter. When Okoro has been on the court, the Cavaliers allow a 3-point percentage that’s 5% lower than when he’s off the court.
While this may seem like a spot to bet on Lillard, I’m turning to his backcourt teammate.
CJ McCollum continues to have a high usage rate (29.9%), second only to Damian Lillard (33.6%) on the Blazers. With this usage, McCollum attempts 46% of his shots from 3 point range which equates to 9.7 attempts per game of which he converts 42.6% for 4.1 3 pointers made per game.
On the season he’s hit more than 2.5 3-pointers in six of his seven games, and I see no reason why this should not continue against the Cavaliers.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Golden State Warriors
Raheem Palmer: This is the highest total on the board at a time when NBA unders are hitting consistently. I'm undeterred, though, as we have two teams which are top five in pace — Golden State plays the third-fastest pace (102.39) and Charlotte plays the fifth fastest pace (101.92).
Given the amount of possessions, we're looking at a track meet offensively since the Hornets are scoring 115.6 points per 100 possessions, which ranks third among NBA teams.
As good as the Hornets are offensively, they're equally as bad defensively, ranking 27th in Defensive Rating at 112.5 points allowed per 100 possessions in their non-garbage-time minutes. The Hornets are allowing opposing teams to shoot a league worst 71.6% at the rim this season while also giving up the 9th highest frequency of opponent 3-point field goals (40.7%).
With Stephen Curry on the floor, the last thing you want to do is give up a high percentage of 3-point field goals and shots at the rim when you're trapping him and allowing his teammates to go 4-on-3. Nonetheless, the Warriors should have no problems scoring as they're fifth in 3-point field goal percentage (38.2%).
With the Warriors and Hornets ranking third and fourth in half-court offense, in addition to this likely being a fast-paced game, I like this game to go over the total.
My model makes this game 229, so I see some value in this game at a time when oddsmakers are shading numbers to the under.
