The Western Conference Finals pits two of the league's brightest young stars against each other, with Luka Doncic leading the Dallas Mavericks and Anthony Edwards at the helm for the Minnesota Timberwolves.
These teams played each other earlier in the season, but the matchups generally aren't transferrable to this series. They were all before the trade deadline, and Luka and Kyrie Irving both missed numerous matchups.
The lineups the Mavericks used were almost entirely of players not in the rotation at this point in time, so we have to assess this matchup as a fresh one.
Rebounding Leaders
One matchup to target is our favorite French Fry, Rudy Gobert.
Gobert has dominated against Daniel Gafford in the past, and he's also thrived against Dereck Lively II. In eight games against Gafford, Gobert has averaged 17 points, 13.3 rebounds and 3.4 blocks in his career and against Lively, he's averaged 14 points, 11.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists in two games.
Gobert should dominate in this matchup, and I would take over 11.5 rebounds in Game 1 or pivot to 27.5 PRA.
Gobert should easily lead the series in rebounds, but the price is untenable. I'm interested in grabbing Luka to lead in rebounds, though (+1000). I don't think it's a bet prior to Game 1 because of how I expect Gobert to dominate this matchup; however, it may be worth buying into after Game 1 in case Minnesota determines that it needs to change its defensive scheme to better defend Doncic.
Luka is a threat for double-digit boards with upside in every game. If I can get him at a number longer than 20/1, I would consider it.
Kyrie Irving vs. Anthony Edwards Assists
One of the fascinating matchups will be between Edwards and Irving. Ant said in his pressers that he's going to be covering Kyrie, and if we know anything about Ant, it's that he's brutally honest.
He's been an elite defender, and even though Kyrie is a tough assignment, it should disrupt his offensive flow.
One prop that I like is a Head-to-Head Assists market between Edwards and Kyrie. Kyrie is listed at +300 on DraftKings. While Edwards is averaging more assists per game during the playoffs (5.9 to 5.4), Kyrie has more potential assists (10.7 to 9.7).
Even during the regular season, Kyrie averaged 5.2 assists compared to Ant's 5.1. This market is mispriced. I would bet this down to +200.
Speaking of Edwards, the dynamic between himself and Doncic will be fascinating. They're both elite scoring options, but they have dramatically different games.
The Mavericks will likely need to use some combination of Derrick Jones Jr. and P.J. Washington on Edwards, but they'll shift their rotations across the board.
Luka Doncic vs. Anthony Edwards Points
As for Luka, I don't think Minnesota has a great straight-up option for him. While KAT may have the size, he's not a great defensive option, and it's so important to keep him out of foul trouble.
I would imagine Jaden McDaniels gets the first crack at defending Luka; however, Luka has about 50 pounds on him. While McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker put the clamps on Jamal Murray, Luka is a completely different animal.
Minnesota may try to deploy Kyle Anderson or Naz Reid on Luka, but that then compromises its offensive process and switchability. In order to have Naz in the game, the Wolves essentially have to sit one of KAT or Gobert, and for Anderson to play, the team needs to either slide Edwards to the point or remove McDaniels from the lineup.
Anderson feels like a better fit, but he's been a non-factor offensively.
All this to say, although Edwards is averaging 28.9 points to Luka's 27.3 points during the playoffs, I have a bit more faith in Doncic's craftiness. Luka's downturns in scoring seemed largely related to his health, and while that's a concern, the prior matchups had a better natural fit to defend him.
For Edwards, Denver was able to limit his scoring on multiple occasions due to its scheme and the general lack of other true offensive weapons for Minnesota. While KAT can score, he generally can't create for himself off the bounce, so it's easier to isolate Edwards as an offensive threat.
Looking at their series-long points props, DraftKings is giving Luka a bit of an edge at an over/under of 28.3 compared to Edwards at 28.1. I think Luka should lead this series in scoring, and while that has a best price of -115 at FanDuel, the market that makes more sense to bet is the H2H series points market against Edwards.
It removes all of the other players and you can get it at the same price at DraftKings (-115).
Ways to Bet Karl-Anthony Towns
KAT is such a fascinating player in this series. He was instrumental in Minnesota surviving that early Denver run in Game 7 and his ability to score at every level will be a significant stressor for this Mavericks defense — as long as he can stay out of foul trouble.
Dallas likely deploys Washington on KAT, which is a decent matchup, but KAT does have a significant height advantage there. Luka, Ant and Washington each take and make more 3s per game than KAT; however, KAT does so at the highest efficiency.
I could see KAT taking more 3s in an effort to space the floor. The number for KAT to lead the series in 3s is a bit long at +1600 (bet365) and is worth a sprinkle.
However, I think the best bet for KAT is to take him to be Conference Finals MVP. While Edwards will generally get the credit for a Minnesota win, KAT is critically important to its success as well.
In this matchup — where I think Dallas has some decent options to defend Ant — there's a world where KAT is the most valuable player for Minnesota. At +2000 (BetMGM), I will bite.
Bet to Make as Mavs Backer
If you're a Dallas backer, then the bet shouldn't be on the Mavericks to win the series; it should just be on Doncic to be the Western Conference Finals MVP.
I don't see a scenario where Dallas can win this series without Luka being the clear cut best player on the floor, and the odds should be much closer to the same as the series price — which they're not.
You get about 20 cents of extra value by betting on Luka series MVP.
Additionally, Luka is the type of transcendent talent that could even be in the conversation to win MVP in a series loss.
Series Blocks Leader
One more sprinkle is Jones to lead the series in blocks. I think he'll need to play as many minutes as he can handle, and the price of +5000 — or as the leader without Gobert of +2200 — at bet365 is too long.
Jones currently is averaging 1.4 blocks per game during the playoffs, which is tied with Gafford for most amongst players on both teams.
Jones has a block in 10-of-12 playoff games as well and is worth a bet in Game 1 to record one at -145 (bet365).
Western Conference Series Bets
- 1 Unit — Kyrie Irving Head-to-Head Series Assists vs. Anthony Edwards (+300, DK)
- 1 Unit — Luka Doncic Head-to-Head Series Points vs. Anthony Edwards (-115, DK)
- 0.15 Units — Karl-Anthony Towns Series 3s Leader (+1600, bet365)
- 0.15 Units — Karl-Anthony Towns Western Conference Finals MVP (+2000, BetMGM)
- 0.1 Units – Derrick Jones Jr. Series Blocks Leader & Blocks Leader Without Rudy Gobert (+5000)/(+2200)
