The NBA playoffs begin in 40 days. The season has less than 20 games remaining for most of the teams in the league.
We are in crunch time. Have a bad week? There goes home court. Have a bad two weeks? Your playoff spot might be in jeopardy.
This is when things get toughest, between the exhaustion, injuries and pressure. It's go time.
Here's a look at the Western Conference NBA playoff picture entering the games on Tuesday, March 5.
Magic numbers refer to the combination of wins and losses by the closest team in contention (and by extension, all subsequent teams) to secure a spot in question.
For example, if a team's magic number is four for a playoff spot, they need four wins to clinch a playoff spot … or three wins and the ninth seed to lose one game … or two wins and the ninth seed to lose two games … or one win and the ninth seed to lose three games.
Western Conference Playoff Picture
1. Golden State Warriors (44-19)
Playoff spot: They locked this up when they hired Steve Kerr five years ago.
Homecourt: I'm willing to say they're a lock for a top-two seed. Magic number for home-court first round is 14, for homecourt in the second-round it's 15. Those are both low enough that the Warriors get there. They can go 9-10 and reasonably still clinch.
Getting home court over Denver is a significantly higher 18. If Houston or OKC make a significant run for the 2-seed, you can expect Golden State to turn on the jets to finish No. 1 so they have home court.
If it's still Denver they're chasing, the Warriors may coast out.
Golden State knows it doesn't want to mess around with a potential Western Conference Final Game 7 in Houston or Oklahoma City, but Denver — nor any other team — having home court doesn't scare the Warriors.
Regardless of how close Houston came last year, you still get the sense they're not really scared by anyone in the West. And honestly, it's a reasonable position.
2. Denver Nuggets (42-21)
Playoff spot: Denver's magic number is 10, that's a lock.
Homecourt: This looked a lot better a week ago before a three-game losing streak with Golden State looming Friday. Denver is really struggling since the return of Isaiah Thomas shuffled its rotations.
The Nuggets' magic number for a top-four seed and homecourt in the first round is 16. That's a lock in the Eastern Conference, but Denver doesn't play in the Eastern Conference.
It's just very possible that Portland, Houston, or Utah (or some combination of the three) make a run of winning 14 of their final 19 or better, which puts a ton of pressure on Denver.
The Nuggets have 19 games remaining; how many do they need to secure that magic number of 16? Do they need to go 12-7 vs. the eighth-best schedule by opponent win percentage?
Denver has a four-game East coast road trip coming up vs. mostly playoff teams. Looking at its schedule, I can only find nine games that feel like Denver should win instead of being predictable losses or coin flips.
Will two out of the quartet of Portland, Houston, Utah and OKC lose seven more games down the stretch?
Controversial option alert: Slipping might honestly be better for Denver long-term.
There are a lot of questions about how Denver will fare in a playoff series. A slide to third and a potentially tough matchup vs. Utah, Portland or OKC would lower expectations to a degree, and while a first-round loss in that spot would be disappointing, it wouldn't be the embarrassing debacle of 2-7 upset to San Antonio or the Clippers.
On the other hand, if the Nuggets do hold on, they should beat either of those teams in a series, and if they do, they very likely get Utah, Portland or OKC — teams they match up decently against.
The Nuggets have no shot vs. Houston. The matchup is somehow worse for them than the rest of the league, and the rest of the league has a lot of trouble with the Rockets.
3. Oklahoma City Thunder (39-24)
Playoff spot: Magic number is 13, that's a lock.
Homecourt: Their lead evaporated once Paul George went down. George injured his shoulder in a loss to Denver a week ago and hasn't been back in the lineup since, the Thunder went 1-2 and have lost four of five, barely escaping the Grizzlies.
OKC's closing schedule is berserk: It has the toughest remaining schedule by opponent win percentage, and more alarmingly, it's not top-heavy, it's just brutal every night.
The Thunder have eight remaining games vs. top-six West teams and the Raptors. Now, before the George injury, I didn't mind this; OKC's win profile suggests it's just as likely to stumble vs. bad teams as it is to beat good teams.
The Thunder rise and fall to the competition. George's situation is worth watching, though.
OKC is going to be in a dogfight to hold onto homecourt the rest of the way, and as such, the Thunder's odds of catching Denver (which owns the tiebreaker) are slim.
It's very likely OKC falls at least into the 4-5 matchup.
4. Portland Trail Blazers (39-24)
Playoff spot: Magic number is 13, that's a lock.
Homecourt: Like clockwork, the Blazers have hit their post-Jan. 1 winning streak. They hit their East coast road trip at the exact time that Brooklyn suffered a huge swoon, Joel Embiid was out for the Sixers, and the Celtics were in the depths of their emotional dark period.
Clockwork.
Now, all of a sudden, they're tied with the Thunder (OKC owns the tiebreaker) and just three back in the loss column from the slumping Nuggets. (Denver leads 2-0 for tiebreaker.) Their schedule is soft (22nd league-wide in opponent win percentage).
They've got a real shot at making a run and stealing the 2-seed, getting a much-preferable first-round matchup and homecourt vs. a likely division opponent in Round 2.
Are the Blazers seriously going to go from getting swept last year to the Western Conference Finals?
Here's one: Two of the league's top five lineups in raw plus/minus are Blazers lineups. That's as much a product of their lack of injuries and continuity as it is how they've played.
But they've still rocked teams with those lineups. (Both of those lineups feature Damian Lillard, Al-Farouq Aminu and Jusuf Nurkic by the way.)
Portland is still up against it with Denver. The Nuggets not only lead 2-0 for head-to-head tiebreaker, but they need just one more division win to clinch that tiebreaker over Portland even if the Blazers won the final two matchups.
So Portland is very likely going to have go 14-5 or better and hope OKC continues to cool off and the Rockets and Jazz don't make an even better run.
Still, the Blazers are sitting pretty with a month to go.
5. Houston Rockets (38-25)
Playoff spot: Magic number 14, they're a lock.
Homecourt: They've won five in a row to boost themselves back in the conversation right as OKC and Denver both hit skids.
Two weeks ago, Houston was back six in the loss column from second. That's down to four, and Houston will almost definitely win tiebreaker given its matchup advantages.
The Rockets have the 18th-ranked opponent win percentage the rest of the way, more home games (10) than road games (9) and their schedule is top-heavy. They play the Bucks and Warriors, but they also have two vs. the Suns and one vs. the Knicks.
Houston needs to watch the Warriors more than anyone. Assuming the Rockets don't want to go for the "try and get them early instead of late" approach which no team tries (even though I think they should), they feel they can beat any of the other teams in their range.
Which means if the Warriors pull away for the 1-seed, Houston needs to get out of the 4-5. This is going to get tight. The Thunder and Nuggets have a lead on the Rockets and Portland is surging.
Houston needs to rattle off wins, but it's absolutely capable of doing so.
The one key stretch? Next week, which features a four-game homestand vs. Hornets, Warriors, Suns, and Wolves. That's a lookahead game vs. Charlotte, a marquee game vs. the Dubs, a letdown game vs. the Suns, and a sneaky slip-up spot vs, the Wolves, who are 2-0 vs. Houston this year.
If the Rockets sweep that homestand, they're going to be in prime position to move up into the 2-3 range.
6. Utah Jazz (36-27)
Playoff spot: Magic number is 16. I'm going to go ahead and call it a lock. I have some trepidation because they are just four ahead of the Kings in the loss column, but the schedule is the key for me.
Utah has the easiest remaining schedule in the league by opponent win percentage.
I'm calling it a lock for now, but games like Monday's loss to the Pelicans are what makes me nervous. But surely they won't lose so many as to let the Kings catch them.
Homecourt: The loss Monday hurt. That put the Jazz three back in the loss column from Portland and OKC. The Thunder have the tiebreaker, and the Blazers and Rockets split the season series.
The Jazz lead the Nuggets 2-1 with one more to go. Denver can also secure tiebreaker vs. the Jazz by winning the last game and then winning one more division game.
Thing is, the Jazz are in a pretty good spot. Their likely first-round matchups right now are Portland, Denver, or OKC. The Jazz beat the Thunder in last year's playoffs, they know they can win in Denver, and the Blazers are a tough matchup but it's about even.
If the Jazz can keep both Houston and Golden State out of their bracket? That's perfect for them.
7. Los Angeles Clippers (37-29)
Playoff spot: The Clippers' win Monday vs. the Lakers was the dagger. Their magic number is 14, with only 16 games remaining. That's actually huge.
The Clippers have a two-game lead in the loss column over Sacramento and the tiebreaker. They have fewer remaining than the Kings, and thus has less opportunity to slip up in a way that would the needle for Sacramento.
The win over the Lakers secured tiebreaker and effectively finished off the Lakers' playoff hopes.
An 8-8 finish gets them to 45 wins and that's probably too high of a bar for the Kings, who would need a 13-6 finish to catch even if the Spurs kept pace.
The Clippers are in.
The Clippers get to just be happy to be here. They probably prefer Denver in a 2-7 matchup, but they'll be a pain for anyone they face in that spot.
They are 5-9 against all the teams that could wind up in the 2-seed. If the Jazz schedule wasn't so easy, the Clips might have a chance to catch Utah, but that's likely out.
8. San Antonio Spurs (36-29)
Playoff spot: Magic number is 16, but they have a little cushion vs. the Kings. The Kings have the tiebreaker. San Antonio's remaining strength of schedule ranks 24th, while Sacramento's comes in at 25th.
The Spurs also own the tiebreaker over the Lakers, have more home games than road games, and still have six more games left vs. the Hawks, Cavaliers and Mavericks, which is huge.
Those six get them probably 40 percent to what they need.
If the Spurs stumble at all, the Kings' schedule and tiebreaker will apply serious pressure.
9 Sacramento Kings (32-31)
Playoff spot: They're alive, but the margin for error is nil.
The Kings, as stated above, have a soft schedule. They have to feast on it.
They have 10 games vs. teams under .500 left, they have to win all those, and probably at the very least four of the nine games vs. teams over .500.
Their odds to make it are very slim, mostly because number of games left. The Kings not only have to close strong, but the Spurs have two fewer games remaining to lose the two they need.
The Clippers have the tiebreaker, so that's even dicier.
The Kings need to find wins vs. good teams if they're going to sneak in.
10. Los Angeles Lakers (30-34)
Playoff spot: Wave goodbye, y'all!
Projections
This is not based on a statistical analysis of odds to win or the 538 or ESPN projections (which by the way, are very sensitive to win streaks of three or more, just a note). This is just based on what I’m thinking now and a win streak or injury can obviously change things. Prediction as of 3/5:
- Golden State Warriors
- Portland Blazers
- Denver Nuggets
- Oklahoma City Thunder
- Houston Rockets
- Utah Jazz
- LA Clippers
- San Antonio Spurs
