On Thursday night in San Antonio, two men in their early 20s met again and showed why they are the future of the NBA. Victor Wembanyama bested Chet Holmgren in a rare Thunder loss, and an even rarer Spurs win. Wembanyama finished with 28 points, 13 rebounds, seven assists, two steals and five blocks. Holmgren, no slouch, had 23-7-5 on 8-of-12 from the field.
But it was Victor's night.
What Makes Victor Wembanyama's All-Universe Rookie Season Different
In the aftermath of a game that wasn't nationally televised but nonetheless felt important, like a big moment, we're left reckoning with the future.
Wembanyama will win Rookie of the Year. That's been the case for some time as Holmgren hit a bit of a wall and Wembanyama's move to full-time center with an actual point guard has opened up his game, what was once a small gap has widened into a gulf.
But he's accomplished much more than that this season. There are limitations and ways in which he is not on an all-time pace, and there's time to build on those. We can take a moment to appreciate why Wembanyama seems to capture the imagination of fans the way he does, the way everyone who watches him in person comes away with a story of what they saw, and to recognize what makes Wembanyama the very definition of different.
We've never seen anything like him
A friend of mine with a particularly cynical view of the world has always snorted at the highlight hype of Wembanyama and he asked me once why everyone was so excited by a kid who would have been put into the stands by a rookie Shaq. (And he's not wrong.)
"Because I've never seen anything like him," I said.
"Really? We saw Shaq, Hakeem, Robinson, and LeBron, though," he replied.
"I didn't say I've never seen better. I said I've never seen anything like him," was my response.
And you haven't either.
We've seen incredible rookies put up numbers. We've seen them dominate. We've also seen them win at much better clips than Wemby's Spurs have this season.
But we've never seen a player do this:
And this:
And this:
All in the same game.
There's still a synergy missing with Wembanyama. But at moments when he strings together plays, it feels like he changes the entire tide of the game by himself. An unbelievable block, running the floor, a move off the dribble. There's so much untapped but also so many ways he already affects the game.
We're used to putting players in certain boxes. Much of the post-Seven-Seconds-Or-Less-Era of basketball has been about breaking out of those boxes. LeBron James is an omega forward, capable of doing everything. He set the all-time scoring record despite always considering himself a passer first. He is/was/will always be power, strength, skill, finesse, and smarts simultaneously. But he was never a big man.
We've seen dominant big men. Shaq was so much more of a powerhouse as a rookie. David Robinson was unbelievable. Go back and look at the Admiral's numbers from his rookie year; he was unbelievable. But these guys weren't perimeter playmakers.
We've seen players with great length who could spread the floor but weren't defensively dominant, defenders who could lock down and deter positions 1-5 but couldn't shoot, and everything in-between. Wembanyama, though, is somehow all of these things. He's the untapped potential of Poku or Anthony Randolph translated into a player with immense pressure but also extremely high expectations.
We've never seen a player live up to the hype like this since Kevin Durant; that much is certain. Anthony Davis was great as a rookie; he wasn't this. Zion was impressive, but injuries were a problem. Durant isn't talked about this way because he was No.2 in the draft but most people saw him at Texas or even before that in high school and knew he had a pre-punched ticket to the Hall of Fame as long as luck didn't get in the way.
But Wembanyama faces the most hype since James, and while the Spurs' record and his overall game leave you cold from a distance, it's different when you see it in person. Beat writers glow about what watching him was like. Writers who routinely cover Hall of Famers nightly speak in awed tones and bewilderment about what we're seeing.
Wembanyama's not even the best rookie fans and media have ever seen, far from it. It's just that there's never been anyone who could amaze you in so many different ways in the span of 30 minutes on the court.
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He's getting better
The decision by the Spurs to finally move Wembanyama to full-time center and play point guard Tre Jones next to him paid immediate results and kicked Wembanyama's season into high gear.
But ultimately, there's also something remarkable occurring, in that instead of hitting a rookie wall, Wembanyama is becoming more impactful. Game score is a measure of single-game production at Basketball Reference. Wembanyama has literally been getting better and better over time.
We're gonna nerd here for a bit, just hang in.
BPM, meanwhile, is an estimate of box-score impact relative to an average player. Wembanyama began the season as a negative player, moved to a small positive by game 20, and is now trending towards being a major contributor.
Wembanyama being an impact player is a big deal; rookies usually don't impact the game meaningfully. But Wembanyama's +4.0 EPM at DunksAndThrees is the highest of any rookie since 2014 outside of Nikola Jokic. (Even in his rookie season, Jokic was projected as one of the most impactful players.)
The Spurs lose their minutes with Wembanyama on-court by an average of four points per 100 possessions. But they lose them by 12 when he's on the bench. And in January, when he finally moved to full-time center, the Spurs won his minutes by 3.4 points per 100 possessions. That's hard to do on a 12-win team.
Since the start of the year, Wembanyama has settled into the rhythm of games. He's become more accustomed to NBA play-styles and has gotten stronger. He still gets knocked off his spot, but it happens less frequently. And he brings a winner's mindset. His competitiveness is infectious, and he's not satisfied with the accolades and points. He wants to win, and his improvement arc in the season shows that.
The curve is still difficult
Most games with 20+ points and 5+ blocks in their rookie season. Vic now has 12, tied with Zo. pic.twitter.com/rysnG8RLX0
— Hardwood Paroxysm (@HPbasketball) March 1, 2024
Wembanyama recorded his 12th such game to tie Mourning on Thursday night — three behind Shaq.
But look at Robinson. Twenty-two games as a rookie with five-plus blocks and 20-plus points.
O'Neal's Magic went 41-41 in his rookie season. LeBron's Cavaliers won 35 games. Robinson's Spurs won 56 (notably when he was 24 out of the Navy).
Wembanyama won't hit those marks. James, you could tell instantly that he would be great, even if there were enough holes in his game to wonder. O'Neal looked even better just because no one could handle him physically. It will take more work from Wembanyama to match the strength deficit he still faces, to improve his finishing through contact (though he is 82nd percentile at the rim this season).
Wembanyama doesn't dominate most games like he did last week vs. the Raptors:
And that's the curve he has to flatten. Wembanyama is spectacular; he has to become unstoppable. But all the pieces are there.
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Secret weapon for the Spurs
Finally, I wanted to highlight this play:
Wembanyama moves through Chet Holmgren here to get an at-rim attempt. Do you know what he needs there, though? A visit from the Doctor of Glass.
There's not a lot for players to really take from Duncan; he was so singularly great at so many things but also uniquely skilled in ways others can never be. But this? This is something that Wembanyama could really serve to add. Get Timmy to teach him the bank!
