After another All-Star Weekend in chilly Indianapolis, let's take a look at the biggest stories atop the headlines and in the minds of league insiders this weekend…
Whispers From NBA All-Star Weekend
1. Joel Embiid Is Definitely Not NOT Coming Back But Also Not Probably Coming Back
That doesn't narrow it down much, but you need to think of this more as what we can rule out. Embiid is due for a re-evaluation in two weeks. That doesn't mean he'll return then, but he's due for a re-evaluation.
The conversations are mostly about how he's not definitely done, and he's not definitely going to return to action. So the probability range is somewhere between 40% and 80%. That's relevant for bettors with the Sixers' odds to win the Eastern conference at +1200.
There's understandable skepticism about whether Embiid should return.
"He's going to be what, 70% at best?" one longtime insider remarked." Can he get back to where he needs to be for a playoff run? What if it risks next season?"
But Embiid likely knows how good this Sixers team is and how good their chances are for a deep run. When you only have so many, you have to take advantage. It's a tough situation.
Multiple executives, some in Indy, most not, said that the Sixers' trade deadline behavior was very much indicative of a team keeping the door open for a run.
"You don't go sign Lowry off the buyout market if you don't think you have a chance; there's no reason for the extra salary bills," one said.
But given the timing and the severity of Embiid's meniscus injury, it's best to approach the idea of an Embiid return with understandable skepticism. A lot has to go right.
2. The League Is Probably Going To Work To Rebalance Offense-Defense
Western Conference All-Star coach Chris Finch said Saturday that there have been discussions with the league from the coaches about working "within the framework" of the rules to balance out the incredible scoring we've seen.
Finch first credited the unprecedented level of skill and ability of today's players but said that there's more work to be done when it comes to teaching officials how to allow more contact from point-of-attack defenders on the perimeter within the confines of the current rules rather than new rules.
There have been discussions in media about the possibility of returning hand-checking, but league insiders indicated a distinct lack of appetite for that this weekend.
Coaches have been the most frustrated with how the rules make point-of-attack containment very difficult and will welcome any adjustment from the "All-Star" scores as one coach described it recently.
3. There Should Not Be A Minus Favorite For Where LeBron Plays Next Season
James met with the media Sunday before the All-Star Game, choosing to skip the rest of the weekend for rest and rehabilitation as he nurses a sore ankle. In his presser, he said he doesn't know when he'll retire or if he'll do a farewell tour or "Duncan it." (Nobody believes he'll skip a retirement tour.)
He also said he's been happy with the Lakers the last six years — again, not a lot of buyers on that one — and that, hopefully, it'll continue.
There is less confidence in the league — misguided or not — that James is assured to return next season with the Lakers. James has a player option worth more than $50 million next season and finding a team to give him that amount in free agency would be difficult. But an opt-in and trade scenario is possible and something the Lakers would likely accommodate.
I asked a handful of smart people around the league about who they would keep an eye on. The Warriors were the obvious ones after reports that Golden State called- and were rebuffed- in an attempt to trade for James at the deadline. Other teams included the Sixers, Knicks, Cavaliers, and Suns, again, speculatively.
The Sixers would have a difficult time orchestrating a trade but would have upwards of between $40 and $60 million to work with in free agency if James elected to opt-out. If Donovan Mitchell informs the Cavaliers he doesn't plan on re-signing in the summer of 2025 (which I want to make clear there has been no concrete reporting of yet), there may be a multi-team deal possible to bring home the prodigal son along with other assets.
The Suns and Knicks both remained active at the deadline, looking for superstar upgrades, and there are strong relationships for James in Phoenix and a chance to finish with a marquee franchise in New York.
But of course, with James, there are other considerations. He has so much business, from entrepreneurial to entertainment, in Los Angeles. His younger son Bryce received a scholarship offer from Ohio State University as well as USC, where Bronny plays. But James still has a daughter in grade school and may not want to up-end her life in California.
For James, legacy is a big part of any decision-making process, and it will influence wherever he elects to end his career. But until the question is settled this summer, teams will keep an eye on the possibility of adding James.
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4. The Donovan Mitchell Talk Remains In The Background
You would think, with how much has been discussed, written about, and podcasted on Mitchell's 2025 free agency, there would be more buzz. But instead, it's all quiet. The Cavaliers declined any and all trade advances regarding Mitchell (and Jarrett Allen after talks with the Pelicans faded).
The Cavaliers have been red hot for two months, and have a real chance at the 2-seed. Their playoff flameout versus the Knicks last year is reason for skepticism about their chances, but the Cavs are 24-9 this season when Mitchell, Allen, and Dean Wade — yes, Dean Wade — play together.
If the Cavs flame out in the playoffs, the vultures will circle. A conference finals run may not be enough, but outside of the rumor post-deadline that the Lakers would pursue Mitchell and the usual Knicks chatter, which has persisted for years, it seems most teams are in a real wait-and-see mode with Mitchell, which is a credit to the Cavaliers for, so far, containing a pretty volatile situation.
5. Changes Are Coming To G-League Ignite
Adam Silver admitted during his annual All-Star address that the league is reconsidering the G-League Ignite team which has provided several high draft picks, all with spotty careers thus far.
The main issue is actually about NIL and how the purpose of the league — to provide a developmental team where players could earn a living before they were drafted — has been compromised by better earning opportunities in college, ironically. From Silver's press conference:
"Some of those same players who didn’t want to be one-and-done players because they felt it was unfair and they wanted the ability not just to earn a living playing basketball but to do commercial deals that weren’t available to them at college, to hire professional agents, an opportunity that wasn’t available to them at college, they now — all of those same opportunities have become available to them".
"I’m not sure what the future of Team Ignite will be, because before there was a hole in the marketplace that we thought we were filling before doing that, and now my focus is turning to earlier development of those players."
The highest-drafted players out of the Ignite, Jalen Green, Jonathan Kuminga, and Scoot Henderson, have all gotten off to rough starts in their careers (though Kuminga is having a breakout season this year), and the lower-drafted players like Jaden Hardy and Marjon Beachamp are still trying to find roles.
But the sample size is small: the league's biggest issue is it will become harder and harder to support the league with NIL rules expanding. It'll be interesting to see what the league decides and on what timeline.
6. Tyrese Haliburton Will Be A Face Of the League
Haliburton was predictably all over All-Star Weekend, as the face of the host team. But also, he took on the role in great fashion. He was at local NBA Cares events and welcome events. He and his teammates took home the Skills Challenge, and had the 3-point Contest rules not been absolutely insane with the first-round tiebreaker, he was live to win that contest too. Then he helped lead the East to a win in the All-Star Game.
Combined with his performance in the In-Season Tournament, Haliburton's emergence as one of the best offensive players in the league has been clear. The Pacers are still learning to compete, but they're dangerous, and Haliburton keeps rising whenever the light is brightest.
7. All-Star Weekend Is Too Far Gone To Save
Everyone loved the In-Season Tournament. The games were fun. They were competitive. It was what sports is supposed to be about.
Then there's All-Star Weekend.
Now, here's the weird thing: if you actually go to the event, there's a lot to love. The NBA's Crossover event sees families bringing their kids to shoot hoops and get autographs with players they love. There was a mock WNBA Draft stage where fans could don jerseys and take the podium to get drafted. There were artist booths and Mitchell & Ness gear. The concerts, the panel conversations, the live podcasts from places like the Ringer, it's a celebration of basketball, and that's great.
(Indianapolis did awesome with that, by the way. The state's love of basketball shined through, and Saturday night was the best crowd I've ever seen at one of these events, regardless of how it played out.)
But then there are the events. The players are endlessly shuttled between media events, corporate events, and parties. They're supposed to rest up but also show their skills. There's no way to balance it.
The dunk contest had terrible judging. (How did Jacob Toppin not advance?!) The highlight of Saturday night was Steph Curry vs. Sabrina Ionescu in a special shootout. Curry reigned supreme, but Sab acquitted herself and validated her spot as one of the best shooters in the world. More importantly, the crowd and social media bought into it. But even that was tainted by Kenny Smith's commentary on the event.
How do you fix it?
You don't, but you move it. All-Star Weekend needs to serve as a welcome weekend to basketball. Host it in the fall before the season starts. Better weather, a chance to really kick off the weekend. You have to battle with football but get creative with the scheduling. It's better for the season to ramp up.
All-Star Weekend is broken. But don't try to fix it. Just ship it to a different spot so it's not the first thing fans see after the Super Bowl.
