Why The Hornets Are Underrated and Undervalued This Season

We recently talked about Coach of the Year.

This isn't about that, but this is an extension of that conversation given that it revolves around these middling dudes in Charlotte.

Generally, the winner of said award punches above their weight a previously unforeseen amount — roughly 13 wins above your pre-season projection is a recent aggregate is where we came to an agreement based on historical context.

Here's the Eastern Conference as we see it.

We expect the Boston Celtics, New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers to be among the conference's elite. Plenty are pessimistic about the Milwaukee Bucks, but their body of work suggests they'll be here, too. The Indiana Pacers just made the conference finals, and both the Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic are primed to step forward, conventional wisdom would suggest. The Miami Heat return a playoff-tested core that had the most post-season wins from 2020 to 2023 before last year's blunder, and the Atlanta Hawks have cleared the path for Trae Young to run the team once more.

But as is the case every year, some teams underperform, be it injuries, performance or both, opening the door for others to emerge in their place.

It always happens, and yet, we're constantly surprised.

So, on the show, I asked — what if the Charlotte Hornets, whose over/under total is around 30 wins, could become that team?

And when you're done laughing, just hear me out.

The Unpredictable Swings

This sh*t happens every season.

Last year, here were the teams that won the most games above their pre-season over/under:

• Oklahoma City Thunder: 57-25 (44.5 total)
• Minnesota Timberwolves: 56-26 (44.5 total)
• Boston Celtics: 64-18 (54.5 total)
• Orlando Magic: 47-35 (37.5 total)
• Houston Rockets: 41-41 (31.5 total)
• Indiana Pacers: 47-35 (38.5 total)

And here were the teams who fell the furthest below their projections:

• Memphis Grizzlies: 27-55 (45.5 total)
• Detroit Pistons: 14-68 (28.5 total)
• Toronto Raptors: 25-57 (36.5 total)
• Charlotte Hornets: 21-62 (31.5 total)
• Washington Wizards: 15-67 (24.5 total)

This isn't an outlier season either.

In 2022-23, five teams went over their projections by at least eight wins — roughly the same for unders — with four breaking double figures to the over. And in 2021-22, five teams went over by a double-digit amount of wins, while four teams went under by double figures.

So, as it pertains to the Hornets, here's the case.

Why Not Charlotte?

Let's start at the top — new head coach Charles Lee.

Lee, 39, is getting his first crack at being an NBA head coach here, and he was seen as a top-end assistant prior to getting the job.

Lee has been on some damn good staffs, too. From 2014-18, he was on Mike Budenholzer's Atlanta Hawks staff, which saw a 60-win season and two playoff runs that went to at least the semifinals. He followed Budenholzer to the Milwaukee Bucks in 2018, where he remained until 2023.

He was an assistant coach when the Bucks won their 2021 championship and was there for another three runs to at least the semis, including another conference finals. The Bucks were a No. 1 or a No. 3 seed to end each season. And then last year, he was on the Boston Celtics staff, securing a second NBA ring as an assistant on a team that was analytically historical and later cruised through the playoffs.

This doesn't automatically mean he'll transition into being a great head coach, but this is generally the resume you want coming into your building as a first-timer.

Now, starting at the top on the actual roster would be LaMelo Ball, who brings us full circle here. Ball already has his five-year, $204 million extension in hand, which begins this year, the fifth of his career. Ball also has a checkered injury history, which he referenced on media day, suggesting he'll wear ankle braces as a precaution.

Ball played in 52 of a possible 73 games as a rookie in 2020-21, including a Play-In game. In 2021-22, he played in 76 of a possible 83, again including the Play-In. But the last two seasons, he's been limited to just 36 and 22 appearances, giving him 186 games played of a possible 320, meaning he has missed 42 percent of games in his career. Again, that includes two Play-In games.

So, for Ball, it starts with health. But because he's been banged up and hasn't played in much of any games that have mattered, we forget how talented the guy is.

He's a 6-foot-7 point guard who has been an All-Star once and has averaged 21.6 points, 7.9 assists, and 6.4 rebounds per game over his last three seasons since winning Rookie of the Year. He's an offensive rarity who has been a defensive turnstile and is offering that he'll be better regarding the latter. Ultimately, all we could offer is a big ass we'll see for now — but we'll come back to this whether or not it's so and play the result now.

The point is, he's an All-Star talent and is now a legitimate veteran who turned 23 in August. If there's another gear for him to get to, we should see it sooner than later.

Enter Brandon Miller, who would be the prize of the 2023 NBA Draft if not for that alien playing for the San Antonio Spurs.

Miller was third in Rookie of the Year voting (Chet Holmgren, injured in 2022-23, was second). Miller averaged 17.3 points per game and hit 37 percent from three on over six attempts per contest. He was second in rookie scoring and led all first-year players in three-pointers made (184) and attempted (493), which you'd imagine would fit perfectly with Ball's playmaking. He's a big work and progress defensively, but he has plenty of room to grow.

Elsewhere, you have starting center Mark Williams, who has had an injury-plagued first two seasons. He played 43 games as a rookie, was essentially shutdown after a bad back after 19 appearances last season and is dealing with a foot injury, but he's at least out of a walking boot. When healthy, he's a walking double-double who projects to be a quality defensive anchor if healthy.

Josh Green, you would hope, brings a three-and-D element to this team after four years in Dallas. We have to mention Miles Bridges, who averaged 21.0 points and 7.3 rebounds last season — both career-highs — even though, you know…

Others worth highlighting are Tre Mann, who is enjoying a great pre-season, no. 6 overall pick Tidjane Salaun, Grant Williams, who was productive last season after landing in Charlotte, Nick Richards, who filled in for Mark Williams at center last season, Seth Curry, whose shooting will be meaningful and Vasilije Micić, who closed 2023-24 as a starter. I also think Nick Smith Jr. has one of the higher ceilings on this team, though for now, he's still a project.

In totality, you have two young stars, you have role players around them who have legitimate room to grow, and multiple other young pieces we just don't know enough about yet.

In their schedule, you know they're going to have 16 games against their division. In their division are the Magic, Heat, Hawks and Wizards. The Wizards want nothing more than to lose. The Hawks want to win but might not be good enough. The Heat could really go either way depending on a number of things, like Jimmy Butler's contract situation, general health, and continuity — even if under external (see: their fanbase's) distress. And what if we're too high on the Magic this season?

Last year, the Hawks got to the Play-In with 36 wins. If Ball, alongside Miller and Lee, even bring this team back into the Play-In, they'll be the trendy over bet for next season. They will have altered our perception. They'd feel like they're finally trending in the right direction — legitimately — behind a star talent who is figuring out, a blossoming second-year player, productive role players and a first-year head coach who could hardly be more prepared to take on the massive challenge that is — and has been — winning in Charlotte.

And as far as betting goes, I've already taken the Hornets over 29.5 wins and, at +270, to win 35 games, both on FanDuel.