From 2003-2008, the Detroit Pistons made the Eastern Conference Finals in six consecutive seasons, earning two trips to the Finals and taking home the title in 2004. Since the organization has made the playoffs just three times, resulting in three first round sweeps as an eighth seed.
Troy Weaver’s restoration attempt flatlined as the Pistons finished with just 31 wins over the last two seasons. Trajan Langdon replaced him in May as the team’s president of basketball operations. However, one thing Weaver did well during his tenure was stockpile young talent.
This year’s roster features five lottery picks aged 23 or younger, with four of them being selected in the top five. Cade Cunningham has been expected to return the Pistons to prominence and he just received his rookie-scale max extension this summer.
After finishing third in Rookie of the Year in the 2021-2022 season, he was limited to 12 games as a sophomore. He returned last season and enjoyed the best season of his young career.
He shot career-high percentages in effective field goal percentage (50.0%), two-point percentage (48.7%), three-point percentage (35.5%), and free throw percentage (86.9%). He became one of just seven players to average 20 points, 4 rebounds, and 7 assists in a season, joining a list that includes Oscar Robertson, Kevin Johnson, Chris Paul, Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, and Luka Doncic. He also compares favorably to another former No. 1 overall pick that has received far more attention.
Player A: 22.6 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 5.4 APG, .497 eFG%, .546 TS%, 29.7% Usage %
Player B: 22.9 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 7.5 APG, .500 eFG%, .546% TS%, 30.8% Usage%
Player A is Paolo Banchero while player B is Cunningham with Banchero holding the edge in rebounds and Cunningham holding the edge in assists, which would you expect relative to their position. Banchero just led the Magic to the playoffs and battled the Cavaliers to seven games. Obviously winning is what attracts national interest, which something Cunningham has been unable to do with rosters that did not always feature 12 NBA players.
Two examples are Killian Hayes and Isaiah Livers, who started next to Cunningham last November. Hayes shot 29.7% from 3 for the season while Livers shot 28.6% from 3. Livers was traded to Washington in January and was subsequently released and currently is not on a NBA roster. Hayes was released in February and signed with a Brooklyn team that is eying Cooper Flagg.
With Hayes and Livers starting and playing alongside Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren, the Pistons had some of the worst spacing you will see in today's NBA. As a result, teams are were able to load up on Cunningham as he has shot 41.6% from the field and averaged 4.3 turnovers per game last November. The Pistons' spacing improved a bit when Bojan Bogdanovic -a 39.4% 3pt shooter- returned from injury.
When Cunningham and Bogdanovic shared the floor, the Pistons had a 117.7 offensive rating that would have ranked sixth in the NBA over the course of a full season. However, they also had a 128 defensive rating that would have been last in the league by over eight points. At the trade deadline, the Pistons acquired Simone Fontecchio from the Jazz and sent Bogdanovic to the Knicks. While Bogdanovic is the better offensive player, Fontecchio is more capable defensively at this stage of their career while still providing much-needed spacing.
Putting more spacing around Cunningham was a point of emphasis for Langdon this offseason. The Pistons acquired Tim Hardaway Jr. and Malik Beasley to go along with Fontecchio and pair of athletic young wings in Ausar Thompson and Ron Holland Jr. Additionally, Tobias Harris returns to Detroit for his second stint with the organization. The move was scoffed at or mocked by some because Harris struggled in the postseason in Philadelphia. However, Harris is a career 16.3 PPG scorer and 36.8% 3-point shooter that will be a massive upgrade for the Pistons at power forward.
There were similar sentiments about head coach JB Bickerstaff, who is just 7-15 in the playoffs. One day that may be an issue for the Pistons, but Bickerstaff has also led the Grizzlies to an 18-win improvement from the 2017-18 to 2018-19 seasons and a 22-win improvement in Cleveland from the 2020-21 to 2021-22 seasons. In most seasons, a 20-win improvement would give a coach at being a contender for Coach of the Year, but for the Pistons that would only net 34 wins. As a result, Bickerstaff is on the periphery of the Coach of the Year odds at +6000 on DraftKings and ESPN Bet.
A 34-win season would be nothing to scoff at for the Pistons considering the past two years. Despite coming off a historical bad season, the Pistons are not that far away. In clutch time, the Pistons were 8-27 with a -36.5 net rating, one of the worst marks in NBA history. That aligns when you consider the coaching malpractice from Monty Williams last season and he lasted just one season after agreeing to a six-year, $78.5 million deal.
Chief among Williams' faults was his disinterest in developing Jaden Ivey, who he played behind Hayes in the first half of the season. Ivey was drafted with the intention of being Cunningham's running mate in the backcourt, but between Cunningham's injuries and a wasted developmental year for Ivey, the jury is still out on whether the pair fits together. Preseason caveats do apply here, but Ivey looks poised for a breakout third year as he is averaging 18.2 points and shooting 60% from the field through preseason games.
Bickerstaff's Cavaliers were not among the league's best in clutch time, going 20-22 with a -5.3 net rating. However, simply being below average to mediocre instead of historically would go a long way for the Pistons. Learning how to win is a tough task for young teams, but if the Pistons are something like 18-25 in clutch time games, that is already a 10-win improvement over last season.
The Pistons win total sits at 25.5, climbing by one since being released. If Bickerstaff is able to engineer a turnaround in his first year in the Motor City, there is value in taking the Pistons to win 30 games at +230 and 35 wins at +670 on FanDuel. However, it all comes back to Cunningham if the Pistons are going to make that happen.
With an improved roster and spacing around him, Cunningham should have more room to operate this season, which also may help him finish better inside after shooting just 40.2% between three and 10 feet last season. More spacing will also pay dividends for Cunningham's primary pick-and-roll partner, Duren, who has little trouble finishing inside and collecting double-doubles.
While the Pistons may be another season from being a realistic threat to make the playoffs, they should be much improved this season behind their young core, veteran additions, and new coaching staff.
