Game 7.
It's described as the two best words in sports, but that's honestly for neutral observers. No fan wants to experience a Game 7. It's nerve-wracking, every possession feels like life or death, and if one little thing goes wrong… your season is over. You know your squad can beat this team; they've done it three times. But things are tense and so tight that every little moment seems to expand unto the infinite void.
So yeah, it's a good time.
For the Wolves and Nuggets, this is the biggest game of the season, obviously. But more than that, it's a crucial test of concept.
There has been a talking point that the Wolves were built to beat this Nuggets team, and that's not quite the case. Ownership, or rather, the phantom ownership of Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez, had as much to do with the acquisition of Rudy Gobert as former Nuggets President of Basketball Operations (POBO) and current Wolves POBO Tim Connelly did.
Minnesota saw an opportunity to add a dominant defensive piece and zig against the league's small-ball obsession and went for it. Whether it was a purposeful counter-build or not, the Wolves do counter Denver in so many ways.
The Wolves have a dynamic individual scorer in Anthony Edwards, a veteran point guard who can shoot in Mike Conley, a versatile stretch four in Karl-Anthony Towns and Gobert, whom Nikola Jokic cooks in one-on-one coverage because he cooks everyone, but who also gives Joker the toughest challenge.
If the Wolves can't get past Denver this year, when will they? How do they move forward if this team, which had some of the best vibes and culture in the league, can't get past the Serbian Bogeyman? (It's called The Bauk, apparently.)
On the other hand, the Nuggets were building toward a dynasty. They assembled a young bench with the belief that they had to extend the window with cheap contracts and that their starting unit was enough. If it's not, what does that mean?
If Jamal Murray goes out like this, after being known as one of the biggest playoff risers, how does Denver evaluate that? This series has been a disaster for Michael Porter Jr., whom Nuggets POBO did not have awesome comments on in preseason.
Do the Nuggets change up what they thought was the best starting five in basketball? Do they pivot away from the kiddo brigade in the second unit?
Will there be questions about Michael Malone losing the team after 10 years with them?
The stakes are high in Game 7.
Here are some of my tactical considerations going into Game 7.
Solo Ant
The Wolves ran way fewer pick and rolls for Anthony Edwards in Game 6 to avoid pulling multiple defenders into his actions. They also used their other weapons to open things up for him.
The Wolves post up Karl-Anthony Towns here with Jokic defending Kyle Anderson. Aaron Gordon helps, so KCP helps down on Mike Conley, which means MPJ has to rotate to Edwards. Barbecue chicken.
The Nuggets will look to avoid helping as much in Game 7. If they lose by Karl-Anthony Towns, they lose.
JMD Leverage
More empathically, if the Nuggets lose by Jaden McDaniels, they lose. McDaniels has shot 38% from three at home in the playoffs and 17% on the road.
The Nuggets will leave trigger actions open for corner 3s when they play at the level of the screen like on this sequence:
The Wolves won Games 1 and 2 despite McDaniels having poor offensive nights because the Nuggets were completely overwhelmed by the physicality. That is less likely to occur in this one.
The Nuggets didn't lose Game 6 like they lost Game 2. If McDaniels struggles, that takes away key shots from a Minnesota offense that needs every point it can get.
Turnovers Are Half the Battle
The Nuggets are 11-2 straight up (9-4 ATS) in the playoffs the last two playoff runs when they have fewer turnovers than their opponents. They are 11-5 with more turnovers, which is still good, but not as good. The Wolves need turnovers to get their offense going, which allows them to set their halfcourt defense, which allows them to get stops, which allows them to run.
The Nuggets have carved up the Wolves' No. 1 defense when they get stops and can push the ball to get crossmatches. I hate using this talking point because no team is like "what we really want to do is turn the ball over more," but for Denver, it's representative of how Game 7 is under their control if they execute.
Even with how great — and it is capital-G Great– the Wolves' defense is, Denver's offensive floor is just high enough to get this game.
Jamal Murray: Damaged
Murray was already dealing with a calf strain that has limited his ability to spread the defense and find his shot. Then in Game 6, he suffered an elbow injury off a Rudy Gobert screen. He badly missed a finger roll that is automatic for him, threw a horrible lob pass to Gordon and clutched his elbow after both.
Murray was a full participant at practice and felt better Saturday according to Michael Malone, but that's likely just gamesmanship. Murray will play, and if Murray is as bad as he's been, the Nuggets can win.
However, he can't be as loudly bad as often. Murray has taken only seven fewer shots than Jokic in the Nuggets' three losses.
If he can't find his range, he needs to act as a decoy, secondary playmaker and spot-up shooter. That's not how the Nuggets want to operate, but desperate times call for desperate measures. They can win with this version of Murray, even with the Wolves throwing double teams at Jokic every possession — but it requires both Murray and the team adapting to a lesser version of Murray.
Bets
Nuggets -4.5: Home favorites of more than four points in Game 7 are 39-9 straight up and 30-18 ATS since 2003. Home favorites who win Game 7 are 34-10 ATS (77%).
Wolves Under 98.5: Whichever team you think loses the game, you should take that team total under. Game 7 losing-team team-total unders are 33-12 for road teams and 18-4 for home teams. Because I think the Nuggets win this game, Wolves team total under is a play as it provides some insurance (the Wolves can win this game 97-90).
Nikola Jokic Over 51.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (PRA): Jokic averages 55 PRA when he plays more than 40 minutes. This is an elimination game with the conference finals on the line. He has gone over this mark in 15 of 21 games when he has played more than 40 minutes. I considered betting him for a triple-double, but the Wolves really are good enough to double Jokic and still keep his assists down.
However, there's a strong possibility he goes over here just by sheer force of rebounds.
Justin Holiday Over 3.5 Points: Holiday was left wide open and just missed good looks in Game 6. The rest of the Nuggets were rushed, but Holiday just missed. He'll still play in this one; MPJ is on very thin ice with Michael Malone defensively. We need two 3s or a 3 and a random layup to get over here at a plus number (+108, FanDuel).
Recommended, Not Bet:
Wolves 3rd Quarter Pregame Moneyline: I obviously like Nuggets here, but if you like Wolves, a great one is Wolves third-quarter +112 moneyline. The Wolves are the best third-quarter team in Net Rating this season, and two of their three wins have come with their winning the third. The exception was the blowout Game 2.
Karl-Anthony Towns 10+ Rebounds +170: Towns has gotten double-digit rebounds in half the games this series. The one win where he went under this was Game 1. Maybe he winds up in foul trouble, but if he doesn't, given how low scoring these games are, that's a great price on him.
