Villanova vs. UConn Odds & Betting Predictions - February 18, 2025

Matt says so

🔑 Villanova +8.5 -110 (FanDuel) 2.5u The most bipolar team in the country but I feel a nice bounce back game from them. UConn has lost 2/L3 games and their coach can’t stop talking shit. Nova is 4-4 ATS as an underdog and UConn is 7-12 ATS as favorites. Like this spot a lot for nova. \\//s up

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As given in discord

On the surface, this appears to be an under game as both teams are looking to bounce back from losses and both play at some of the slowest tempos in the nation. However, once you dive into the matchups, there are simply too many advantages offensively for both teams. In the first meeting, a Villanova win at home, these teams combined for 134 points; yet this total now later in the season, with higher stakes, is set well north of that number. This isn't a coincidence, as both teams have not been the defensive units we have been accustomed to seeing. Both squads rank outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency per KenPom, and both allow their opponents to get lots of quality looks. Another angle I love to play on with overs is FT shooting and rebounding. Both teams are very good at the charity stripe (78% and 82%) and both teams will crash the offensive glass looking for 2nd chance points. It's also worth noting that with a larger spread, if game script plays into Uconn's favor then Nova will need to play from behind - this leads to more 3PA's for a team ranked 4th in the nation in 3pt shooting percentage at 39.7%. Expect both teams to have offensive success, and for this game to go over in the final minutes, either via some garbage time 3s or at the free throw line.

Few coaches in college basketball are better than Dan Hurley and taking an opponents best player out of the game. Hurley will have a strong game plan in place tonight against the nations top scorer. Dixon shot just 6-20 in the teams first matchup howger he got to the free throw line nine times. UConn will show him a different look on the defensive end of the floor today and do enough to prevent Dixon from clearing this number. @

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