Nothing beats the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, but from a pure betting perspective, nothing beats this entire week.
Before getting to the 10 futures bets I placed for the conference tournaments tipping off this week, I'll share some quick thoughts on the very top-heavy ACC.
So, here's my college basketball futures and picks, including 10 picks for Champ Week.
ACC
I'm likely passing here, but I could only look at Clemson at current prices. This is Duke's tournament to lose, but I believe the Tigers at least have the best profile for pulling the upset over the Blue Devils — since they'll shorten the game and can match Duke's physicality.
Louisville has been outstanding this season under first-year coach Pat Kelsey, but the Cardinals also haven't beat an NCAA Tournament team away from home since outlasting West Virginia in overtime way back in November.
Plus, the Cardinals could be down a key shooter and floor spacer in Reyne Smith.
In fairness, Clemson hasn't beat a tournament team away from home all season (that's partly due to life in the ACC), but you can get it at a better price than the Cardinals, who I have power rated a bit lower.
American: UAB +750
Memphis is clearly the best team in the league, but there are some legit potential bid stealers looming, led by North Texas and UAB.
In terms of who might have the best chance of upsetting the Tigers in a potential final, I'd have to lean toward the Mean Green, who can slow the game down to a crawl and make Memphis uncomfortable.
Conversely, UAB wants to play an up-and-down game that plays right into the hands of the more-talented Tigers, who scored 188 combined points in a season sweep of the Blazers.
However, with that said, I did take a shot on UAB +750 based on price. Admittedly, UTSA (which has been extremely unlucky this season) and East Carolina (which certainly has talent) could provide a tricky test in the quarterfinals.
North Texas is certainly not immune to getting upset given its style, so I have no interest in backing the Mean Green at their current price tag of +200.
If the chalk holds and those two teams meet in the semis, I see that playing out as a coin flip-ish type of game — similar to both regular-season affairs that were each decided by three points.
UAB has an electric offense (26th overall since Jan. 1, per Bart Torvik), led by big man Yaxel Lendeborg, who's one of two players in the country after averaging at least 15 points, 10 rebounds and three assists. The other is Johni Broome.
Big Yax, who's also critical on the defensive end of the floor, is one of the most indispensable players to his team in the country, so hopefully he can stay out of foul trouble in a potential finals matchup with Memphis, which is what happened in the first two meetings against the very physical Tiger frontcourt.
Although, with a tournament bid already locked up, I could certainly see Penny Hardaway's team getting upset before the conference title, which would be a welcome result.
The UAB defense has been extremely disappointing this season, especially when you consider this team brought back almost all of the pieces from last year's NCAA Tournament team (27th in Minutes Continuity).
The Blazers' defense wasn't elite by any stretch in 2024, but they currently rank 286th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency after finishing 198th last season. They obviously miss point guard Eric Gaines in that department.
Ultimately, I just don't think there's a massive gap between the top three teams.
To wit, per Bart Torvik, since Jan. 1, here's where the top three seeds rank:
- Memphis: 63rd (106th O, 40th D)
- North Texas: 67th (96th O, 58th D)
- UAB: 89th (26th O, 244th D)
UAB has the glaring weakness with its defense. Can it lock in with a better effort for three games? I'm willing to take my chances at this price with a core group that obviously knows how to get it done after cutting down the nets last year.
Atlantic 10: George Washington 50-1
For starters, I have no interest in backing top-seed VCU as a -115 favorite.
The Rams should get to the final on paper, but Saint Louis (which massive upside, although does lack depth) and Loyola Chicago (which is much more dangerous than its record due to a litany of injuries earlier this season) could certainly spoil the party.
However, I'm more interested in the bottom half of the bracket from a futures perspective — since I believe George Mason is an extremely vulnerable No. 2 seed.
The Patriots, who went 8-0 in league play in games decided by six points or less (including 3-0 in OT) do have an elite defense (23rd in Adjusted Efficiency), but play extremely slow (322nd in Adjusted Tempo) and are very limited offensively (213th).
Their most likely first opponent would be George Washington, which will also benefit from getting to play in D.C. GW has a very strong defense and runs great offensive sets, but it just can't make an outside shot (322nd in 3P%). That potential matchup could turn into a rock fight for a third straight time this season.
George Mason did sweep the season series, but GW could have easily won both games, despite shooting just 9-of-52 (17.3%) from beyond the arc. It lost the first meeting on the road 80-77 in double overtime after blowing a double-digit halftime lead and then lost the second one at home 53-50 after holding a lead with two minutes remaining.
Both were truly coin flips.
I was personally shocked to see the Revolutionaries at 50-1, especially when you consider Saint Joe's (which has arguably a slighter more difficult path to a title) is listed as 8-1.
I understand the allure of the Hawks, who made a run to the semis as a No. 9 seed last year. They certainly have the high-end talent that can beat anybody in this league on any given night, but I have no interest at just +800.
For what it's worth, since Jan. 1, here's where the top seven seeds rank, per Bart Torvik:
- No. 1 VCU: 26th
- No. 6 Saint Joe's: 73rd
- No. 2 George Mason: 76th
- No. 7 George Washington: 78th
- No. 5 Saint Louis: 90th
- No. 4 Loyola Chicago: 91st
- No. 3 Dayton: 100th
The Hawks could certainly take out Dayton in the quarterfinals, which would make GW's path a bit easier. Although, it's worth noting that GW did beat Dayton by 20 in their only meeting this season. GW actually made its shots (15-31 from 3) despite being down a key piece.
The Flyers have a ridiculously high ceiling, as they demonstrated in their recent road win at VCU. However, they remain maddeningly inconsistent, and I just have no interest at their current price.
Can GW finally make some outside shots for a few games in the nation's capital? If so, they could certainly make a run in a wide open bottom half of the bracket.
This price has come down a bit, but I'd still take a small shot down to 30-1.
Big Ten: Wisconsin +750
On the surface, the bottom half of the bracket looks ripe for the picking, with reeling Michigan as the No. 3 seed.
The Wolverines became the first team to win over 70% of their conference games with a negative point differential since 1983-84 Northern Iowa, which oddly enough had its season end with an overtime loss.
No. 6 seed Purdue also might struggle to win four games in four days — since it's so overly reliant on a few key players and still has major defensive issues. That likely opens the door for either Maryland or Illinois, which surged to end the season after getting healthier.
A potential Maryland-Illinois quarterfinal game feels like it should be semifinal and may come down to whether or not big man Morez Johnson Jr. returns from injury and is effective in doing so. His defense and rebounding are key regardless, but he would be particularly helpful in the matchup against the Maryland frontcourt.
Ultimately, with that uncertainty, I have no interest in either squad, especially since I think both are priced fairly.
I'm personally more interested in the top half of the bracket, where I think Wisconsin comes through.
In terms of motivation, I believe the Badgers won't be lacking in that area after stumbling a bit to close the regular season, which ultimately cost them the double-bye.
I still believe Wisconsin is the best team in the Big Ten at full strength, which they should be at this weekend with the likely return of Max Klesmit. He not only provides obvious shooting and depth, but also is a bit underrated defensively relative to the alternative options.
The path certainly isn't easy, as the Badgers will have to win four games in four days with UCLA and likely Michigan State standing in the way of a trip to the championship game.
However, many of these same players made the exact same run to the final from the No. 5 seed line last season (taking out top seed Purdue along the way), so they understand what it takes to go through the gauntlet.
While Michigan State has been a juggernaut to close the season, the Spartans still have some looming defensive 3-point regression, which could rear its ugly head in the near future. They've held league opponents to a ridiculously low 26.5% from beyond the arc (and an even lower 25.8% since Feb. 1).
In fairness, Tom Izzo's defenses usually over-perform expectations in that area, holding Big Ten opponents to 32.5% from distance, compared to 34.5% for the rest of the league. But this is obviously extreme.
Despite nobody being able to make a 3 against Sparty and Wisconsin's 3-point shooting falling off in recently, Wisconsin still ranks as the best team in the league since Feb. 1, per Bart Torvik:
- Wisconsin: 11th
- Michigan State: 13th
- UCLA: 15th
- Maryland: 16th
You'll notice UCLA isn't far behind both the Spartans and Badgers. Flying a bit under the radar, Mick Cronin's bunch has really turned it on after a midseason swoon and did sweep both Wisconsin and Michigan State.
However, both meetings came at home, where the Bruins have played significantly better. On the season, the Bruins rank 353rd in Haslametrics' away-from-home metric for a reason.
I also think the revamped Wisconsin offense matches up extremely well with the UCLA defense.
Additionally, I believe the Badgers have a better chance of beating Michigan State from a matchup perspective due to its ability to limit teams at the rim and in transition.
Despite shooting just 5-of-32 from 3 (and without Klesmit), the Badgers were in the game against Michigan State in East Lansing until the very end.
It's also worth noting that Michigan State doesn't have a free pass to the semifinals since it'll have to take on the winner of a pair of surging teams in Oregon and Indiana. Both have made critical rotation tweaks late in the season that have paid massive dividends.
Playing a Dana Altman team in a tournament setting is never a walk in the park and playing an IU team (that won in East Lansing) in Indianapolis is certainly no gimme.
Big East: Xavier 14-1
In the bottom half of the bracket, Villanova does profile as a good long shot. The Wildcats play slow, while both shooting and allowing an extremely high frequency of 3-pointers — all of which increases variance in their games.
They also have one of the best players in the league in Eric Dixon, which doesn't hurt.
However, while Villanova has upset a number of the top teams in the league, all of those victories have come on their home floor. The Wildcats shoot an absurd 42% from 3, compared to 35% away from the City of Brotherly Love.
I just can't get to the window at their current price, especially knowing Kyle Neptune is running the show.
A likely Creighton-UConn semifinal would be highly entertaining, but I have no interest in either team at their current market prices. I have concerns about the Huskies' defense and the Creighton supporting cast.
I focused on the top half for my futures bet, where I took a small flier on Xavier at 14-1 (and some 10-1).
The Musketeers should come in highly motivated on the bubble and will kick things off with a Marquette team they've been objectively better than since Jan. 1.
For reference, here's where the top teams in the Big East rank over that span, per Bart Torvik:
- St. John's: 19th
- Creighton: 28th
- Xavier: 29th
- UConn: 36th
- Villanova: 39th
- Marquette: 44th
That's a pretty wide gap for a healthy sample size. And believe it or not, the Musketeers actually rank as the best team in the league since Feb. 1.
They're playing their best basketball of the season and have really improved on the defensive end of the floor, ranking 22nd over that span compared to 58th from November-February.
They remain vulnerable at the rim, but they do a very good job of forcing turnovers, limiting 3-point attempts and grabbing defensive rebounds.
I just don't think the price discrepancy should be as wide as it is between Marquette (which hasn't beaten a tourney team since Jan. 3.) and this current version of Xavier.
Plus, Sean Miller has been very good this season in rematch opportunities, and I do believe Xavier has the better shot of upsetting the Johnnies in the Garden, which they arguably should've done earlier this season in an overtime defeat.
Big 12: Texas Tech +425
I believe Texas Tech is the fifth-best team in the country now that the Red Raiders are fully healthy. I also think they match up better with tournament-favorite Houston than any other team in the league.
Keep in mind that the Red Raiders won in Houston even after losing Big 12 Player of the Year JT Toppin to an ejection. In the second meeting, they hung tough, despite being down two starters and shooting just 6-of-30 from beyond the arc.
Their path will likely start with a Baylor team I just don't trust away from Waco (361st in the away-from-home metric), nor against elite teams (364th in Paper Tiger Factor, per Haslametrics).
I could also say similar things about either one of their likely semifinal opponents in Kansas and Arizona.
In the top half of the bracket, Houston should get to the semifinals without much resistance, where it will likely meet Iowa State or BYU. I don’t think BYU matches up particularly well with Kelvin Sampson's team.
While I do think Iowa State has the chops to take out the Cougars, I’m not sure how healthy the Clones will be in Kansas City. They’ve also had rebounding and turnover issues of late and simply haven’t shot the ball as well away from Ames (38.7% from 3 at home compared to just 30.8% in all other contests).
They also have to play an additional game after missing out on the double-bye, so I just have no interest in anybody from the top half at their current prices.
Guns up.
C-USA: Louisiana Tech 12-1
Liberty is the best team in the league, but this tournament is extremely wide open, especially considering Liberty’s vulnerability to an upset given its style of play.
While the Flames run a beautiful offense and are extremely well-coached, they lost three times on their home court in conference play, so I can't justify betting on them at such a short price.
That opens up opportunities for plenty of teams in the league.
Honestly, you could make a case for nine of the 10 teams (sorry FIU). Even No. 9 seed Sam Houston State is dangerous, despite finishing just 6-12 in league play due to some very poor luck in close games.
I reluctantly chose to go with enigmatic Louisiana Tech, a team I haven't been able to figure out all season.
The preseason-favorite Bulldogs were the definition of inconsistent, finishing just 9-9 in conference play. They do have the best big man in the league in Daniel Batcho and other high-major talent, but their guard play is very hit or miss.
Can they put it together for three games? I’m willing to take a chance, especially since they start with a Middle Tennessee team they swept during the regular season and would likely face No. 2 seed Jacksonville State, which may be overseeded due to some favorable 3-point luck early in conference play.
Neither of these teams will fully exploit Louisiana Tech’s ongoing turnover issues, which is certainly helpful.
While Jacksonville State did sweep the season series, it did so by a combined four points. The Gamecocks do have a major backcourt advantage, with a pair of guards who can carry them to a title, but they really stumbled down the stretch, losing four of their last seven games.
One of their three wins was in double-overtime against lowly FIU, and the other was by just two points over Tech.
Hopefully, we see the good version of Tech, and some close-game luck breaks its way after going 0-4 in league play in games decided by two points or less.
MAC: Kent State +250
A finals matchup between rivals Akron and Kent State would certainly provide a boost to the local economy.
If the chalk holds and we get that matchup, I’m leaning toward the Golden Flashes to pull it off, avenging their season sweep by Akron this year and last season's heartbreaking loss in the MAC Championship.
Kent State has significantly improved offensively, thanks to some lineup adjustments, partially due to injuries. The Flashes also lost a key player earlier in the season, so it's taken some time for the newer players to find their roles.
Guard Jalen Sullinger, in particular, has really found his rhythm and shot late in the season. While part of this turnaround is simply about making more shots, I’m a believer in the progress they’ve made.
Since February 1, Kent State has been the best team in the league by a decent margin, boasting a top-60 offense. Its only two losses during that stretch came on the road to Akron and Miami (OH) — games it easily could've won.
I also believe Kent State matches up well with Akron. It can take advantage of the Zips on the interior, while Akron won’t fully exploit Kent State's turnover issues. Before a late meltdown, Kent State had Akron on the ropes at home, where Akron has been virtually unstoppable this season.
What's more, Kent State has performed surprisingly well away from home this season, which is uncommon in this league. Contrast that with Ohio and Miami (OH), the other primary contenders who both rank outside the top 330 in Haslametrics' away-from-home metric.
Those teams also might not be at full strength, which adds another layer to the potential matchup.
In away and neutral games, here's where the top five teams rank this season, per Bart Torvik:
- Kent State: 85th
- Akron: 111th
- Miami (OH): 192nd
- Toledo: 212th
- Ohio: 232nd
I haven't mentioned Toledo yet, but I have no confidence in the Rockets' defense, which shockingly ranks 355th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency according to KenPom.
They finished the season losing six of their last eight games, with their only two wins coming against an undermanned Ohio team in a relatively meaningless regular-season finale and Ball State at home by just one point.
The bottom three teams in the MAC can be feisty on the right day, but I don’t trust any of them to win three games. Bowling Green lacks the offensive firepower, while Eastern Michigan struggles defensively.
Western Michigan almost swept Kent State, which is concerning for the Golden Flashes in their first-round game. However, I’ve had this future circled for the past few weeks, so I’m sticking with it.
MAAC: Sacred Heart 14-1
Want to talk about a wide-open league? Look no further than the MAAC. If you can figure this one out, kudos, because I sure can’t.
To highlight just how unpredictable this league is, let’s take a look at where each seed ranks since February 1, according to Bart Torvik:
- No. 4 Iona: 176th
- No. 2 Merrimack: 214th
- No. 5 Manhattan: 222nd
- No. 7 Sacred Heart: 232nd
- No. 9 Siena: 235th
- No. 6 Mount St. Mary's: 251st
- No. 1 Quinnipiac: 258th
- No. 8 Rider: 285th
- No. 10 Fairfield: 319th
- No. 3 Marist: 327th
Yes, the three-seed ranks 327th in the country since the beginning of February. While Marist did recently get a key player back from injury, that’s still shocking.
Although I believe Merrimack is the best team, led by the top player in Budd Clark, its vulnerable to an upset due to an Adjusted Tempo outside the top-300 and an offense that ranks 281st in Adjusted Efficiency.
There’s just not much separating these teams.
Much like C-USA, I can make a case for all but one team (Fairfield), which means the Stags will likely end up cutting down the nets in Atlantic City.
I’ve chosen to go with Sacred Heart, which will have to win four games in five days, but at least has decent depth. It'll start with Fairfield, where it's likely to close as a two-possession favorite.
If the Pioneers handle business against their cross-town rivals — whom they swept by 21 and six in the regular season — they’d then face Merrimack, a super vulnerable top-two seed.
Sacred Heart split the regular season series with Merrimack, with each team winning by a single point on the other's home floor despite Sacred Heart shooting a combined 9-of-44 (20.5%) from 3.
The Pioneers definitely have a puncher’s chance. While they have a poor defense, they’re in a league full of poor offenses. It’s arguable that Sacred Heart has the best offense in the conference (either it or Manhattan).
It’s also helpful that the Pios have already seen Merrimack’s unique high-pressure zone multiple times. While their zone offense numbers are ugly, they’ve improved with each subsequent game against zone-heavy teams.
Plus, stud center Anquan Hill, who had two big games against Merrimack, returned in the regular-season finale after missing three games due to injury.
I’m just looking to make it to the semis, where anything can happen in this wide-open league. That said, I wouldn’t fault anyone for taking a shot with several other teams at Boardwalk Hall.
One team I don’t think Sacred Heart matches up well with is Quinnipiac, which fortunately is on the other side of the bracket. Hopefully, someone can take out the Bobcats before the final if the Pios can make it that far.
SEC: Texas A&M 30-1
It’s not ideal that Texas A&M’s path likely includes both Vanderbilt and Tennessee in Nashville, but this is more of a small dart throw on a team I’m higher on than the market.
I also think the Aggies match up very well with Auburn, thanks to their ability to dominate on the offensive glass and get to the free-throw line.
Who knows how locked in Auburn will be for a potential semifinal matchup?
I’m a bit concerned about Vanderbilt’s shooting against Texas A&M’s aggressive defense, but if the Aggies can get past the Commodores, they’ll likely face Tennessee again in what should be another grind-it-out game.
In their first meeting, A&M had a chance late, despite shooting just 5-of-30 from 3. Meanwhile, the Vols hit an absurd 13-of-27 from beyond the arc. I don’t expect those splits to repeat.
While the Aggies aren’t great shooters, they’re not that bad, and for some reason, they’ve shot much better away from College Station in conference play (34.3% compared to a dreadful 25.0%).
Maybe some shots will fall for Wade Taylor IV and company this time.
This isn’t my favorite bet by any means — just a small lottery ticket.
WAC: Seattle 5-1
I’ll keep this short and sweet. Seattle has the league's best defense, but it was just unlucky in close games all year. The Redhawks are arguably the unluckiest team in the country, according to KenPom.
If they can get past Abilene Christian, which I think they match up fairly well against since they don’t turn the ball over, they’ll likely face top-seeded Utah Valley.
I think Utah Valley is extremely overrated, especially away from home, where it was incredibly fortunate throughout league play.
I don’t see much separating these two teams. Since Feb. 1, here’s where the top teams in the league rank, per Bart Torvik:
- Grand Canyon: 98th
- Utah Valley: 99th
- Seattle: 110th
- Abilene Christian: 128th
- Cal Baptist: 196th
Seattle is right there, despite shooting just 29.8% from 3 during that stretch. The Redhawks aren’t a good shooting team by any means, but they aren’t that bad.
If they can get a few shots to fall from the perimeter and benefit from some overdue close-game luck, they could easily make a run to the final, where they’d likely face Grand Canyon.
While they’ll be at a talent disadvantage, they match up fairly well schematically.
It’s also worth noting that several teams in the league are dealing with injury concerns. Tarleton (I did throw some couch change on the Texans 100-1) has improved significantly with Freddy Hicks back from injury, while Dominique Daniels Jr. recently returned for Cal Baptist.
Grand Canyon is the class of the league, but it remains uncertain if Tyon Grant-Foster will be available, and how healthy he’ll be after missing the past five games.
