The America East Tournament starts on Saturday with all four quarterfinal matchups. While the conference hasn't won many tournament games this century, it has provided us with three of the more memorable March Madness moments since 2005:
- 2005: No. 13 seed Vermont upsets Syracuse (from the parking lot in OT)
- 2006: No. 16 seed Albany led UConn 50-38 with 12 minutes left
- 2018: UMBC became the first 16 seed to beat a No. 1 when it stunned UVA
Does the America East champ have more magic up its sleeve?
We will get to that on Selection Sunday, but let's first focus on the conference tournament futures odds.
2019 America East Tournament Odds, Format
- Who: Top eight America East seeds (New Hampshire DNQ)
- Format: Single-elimination (no byes)
- When: March 9, 12, 16
- Where: Campus sites (higher seeds host with re-seeding)
- How to Watch: ESPN+/ESPN2
- Defending Champion: UMBC
Who Should Win?
Vermont (-230) is the clear favorite, as it seeks its fourth-straight championship appearance (1-2 record). The Catamounts have the league's best player in Anthony Lamb (20.8 ppg, 8.0 rpg) and steady fifth-year senior Ernie Duncan in the backcourt. While Vermont has plenty of depth, everything goes through Lamb, who will get his against any America East team.
Vermont went 14-2 in league play, with both losses coming against UMBC. However, Lamb didn't play in the first meeting — and Vermont shot a paltry 4-24 from deep in the second. Still, that's three straight losses to UMBC, including last year's title game. It might be part-mental at this point. The good news for Vermont is if the seeds hold, it couldn't face UMBC until the final.
Bottom line, Vermont is the best team in the conference by a wide margin. It had the most efficient defense and second-most offense in conference play — and will play every game at home, where it will likely be favored by at least eight points vs. any opponent.
Let's explore the rest of the field for any potential futures value.
Potential Sleeper
Hartford +850
You can throw out the two lowest seeds Maine and Binghamton — two horrible teams without a realistic chance as the odds indicate. Neither had a single win over the top five America East teams.
That leaves five options:
- No. 2 seed Stony Brook: The Seawolves garnered national attention when they started the year 2-0 with road wins at GW and South Carolina, but those wins look a lot less impressive now. Stony Brook can't shoot, but it does do yeoman's work on the offensive glass and plays stellar defense.
- No. 3 seed UMBC: This is not the same team that defeated Virginia, as its two star guards that helped pull off that historic upset have departed. The Terriers rely on a very active defense that ranks in the 90th percentile in points per possession in the half-court and top 10 nationally in turnover percentage. That said, their half-court offense is horrid (.85 ppp).
- No. 4 seed Hartford: The Hawks were picked second in the preseason and had the most efficient offense during league play. Hartford is lacking defensively, but this team can shoot. The Hawks ranked 17th in the country in 3P% and No. 1 overall during league play at over 40%.
- No. 5 seed UMass Lowell: The River Hawks want to run and are very efficient in transition when they do, but their defense is very poor. They also faded down the stretch, losing four of their last five — including a home loss to Binghamton.
- No. 6 seed Albany: The Great Danes are the definition of average in America East terms. They're also extremely young.
UMass Lowell just can't get enough stops — and I can't see the scrappy Great Danes winning three straight. That narrows the potential futures list to three similarly rated teams.
UMBC's recent dominance of Vermont is intriguing, but I simply don't trust its anemic offense. The Retrievers also have a tricky first-round matchup against Albany, which should've swept the season series if not for a wild UMBC comeback.
I just don't see any value in Stony Brook at +335. Those odds reflect its extremely easy first-round matchup, but the shooting woes and turnover issues concern me.
That leaves Hartford at +850, which holds value in my eyes. The Hawks are a very intriguing team with a very formidable and well-balanced offense (87th percentile in ppp).
They are also the most experienced team in the entire country. Hartford starts five seniors, four of whom average at least 13.0 ppg. In fact, its top seven scorers are all seniors.
While the Hawks have more experience than anybody, they rank 353rd out of 353 teams in bench minutes. Their sixth-leading scorer averages 2.6 ppg and those five senior starters all average 30+ minutes per game. However, the tourney is played over eight days, so it's not a huge concern (if they avoid foul trouble).
Hartford's offense and experience should prevail against a fading UMass Lowell team. That would set up a semifinal matchup with Vermont if there are no first-round upsets. That's not ideal, but Hartford did lead by six with 11 to go in their most recent meeting in a hotly contested two-point loss.
Plus, the America East re-seeds; if either Stony Brook or UMBC gets upset, Hartford would avoid Vermont in the semis..
I just can't pass up +850 with the league's best offense and the country's most-experienced team.
