The biggest story of the Big 12 regular season was Kansas' regular season championship streak coming to an end after a dominant, 14-year reign. The Jayhawks in-state rival Kansas State and Texas Tech tied for first, which marked the first-ever Big 12 regular season title for the Red Raiders.
As you might expect, Kansas has also historically owned the Big 12 Tournament. The defending champion Jayhawks have won 11 titles since the tournament's inception in 1997; the rest of the conference also has 11 — combined — over that span.
Will Kansas' historical dominance in the Big 12 postseason also come to and end, or will it right the ship in Kansas City? Let's take a closer look at who should win, two potential sleepers and some first round matchup thoughts.
2019 Big 12 Tournament Odds, Format
- Who: All 10 Big 12 Teams
- Format: Top 6 seeds receive a bye
- When: March 13-16
- Where: Kansas City, Mo.
- How to Watch: ESPN
- Defending Champion: Iowa State
Who Should Win
Texas Tech +150
The Red Raiders have some of the best efficiency numbers in the nation, especially on defense. Head coach Chris Beard's crew ranks first in the nation in Defensive Efficiency and Effective FG%. And during Big 12 play, Texas Tech tops the Big 12 in Effective Feld Goal Percentage on both offense and defense.
TTU is led by Jared Culver, who should be in the discussion for National Player of the Year. He also has shooters all over the perimeter. This is as well-coached and efficient a team as you will find in the country.
Tech’s path to a Big 12 title starts with a matchup against the winner of Oklahoma or West Virginia. I expect it to advance to then meet the winner of Kansas or Texas — two teams the Red Raiders went 3-1 against during the regular season, with the only loss coming in Lawrence.
If the seeds hold, the Red Raiders face Kansas State in the final. Our power ratings would make them about a seven-point favorite in that matchup. They are clearly the class of the conference right now. And while +150 might not look appetizing, a rollover moneyline parlay may not retrieve the same odds, especially if we get some upsets.
Potential Sleepers
Baylor 15-1
There is plenty to love about Baylor and head coach Scott Drew, who has done a tremendous job after losing Tristan Clarke for the season.
The Bears are second in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage along with a defensive block percentage of 20th. While dominating the glass on both ends has been crucial for Baylor, it also led the conference in 3-point shooting during Big 12 play.
Baylor will start off with a third matchup against an Iowa State team it swept during the regular season. The Cyclones have lost five of their last six games and have struggled mightily away from home lately. Baylor beat Iowa State in Ames thanks to a 44-28 rebounding advantage, which could be the difference once again. Regardless, you have to fancy Baylor's 15-1 odds over Iowa State's 5-1 price tag given the circumstances and match up.
With rumors of Iowa State chemistry issues and actual fights during practice, Baylor may quickly find itself in a revenge game against Kansas State, which defeated the Bears by six behind a hot shooting night from Dean Wade. Baylor also had 19 turnovers compared to Kansas State’s 10. If the Bears can clean up some of those turnovers, they have an excellent shot to play in the Big 12 championship.
And don't forget that Kansas State has dealt with some nagging injuries of late. That might be an issue in these back-to-back game scenarios.
Texas 12-1
In the bottom half of the bracket, I think you have to focus on Texas at 12-1 with the return of leading-scorer Kerwin Roach, who just does so much for the Horns.
Texas will start with a game against Kansas, which it split with during the regular season. Kansas should be a very short favorite in a game that could really go either way. Yet, Kansas is +385 to win the Big 12 tourney, while Texas is significantly higher at 12-1.
The weakness for Texas this year has been perimeter defense, as it ranks last in the Big 12 in 3-point defense. That is something this current Kansas roster can't really take advantage of. And what exactly has Kansas done away from Allen Fieldhouse this year?
The Longhorns have also had a terrible stretch of luck this season, ranking 348th in KenPom’s Luck metric. Don't be surprised if they start to get some bounces in Kansas City.
First Round Thoughts
A couple lower seeds that have dealt with suspensions and injuries have continued to fight late in the season, making life difficult for the bigger fish in the Big 12. Those two teams are West Virginia and Oklahoma State. Both have very inexperienced rosters but continue to battle on a nightly basis.
I expect the Cowboys to battle a TCU team it easily could have swept this season. They should be a live dog (around +5) on Wednesday.
The other play-in game pits Oklahoma against West Virginia, which split during the regular season. The Mountaineers could make life miserable for the Sooners with their work on the offensive glass and in forcing turnovers. Especially if Oklahoma comes out as flat as it did in Morgantown.
Don't be shocked if one of or both of Bob Huggins and Mike Boynton have their teams in position to pull off an upset on day one.
