The Big East tournament has no shortage of storylines in what looks to be the most wide-open power conference tourney of 2019. With both top seeds fading down the stretch and only two games in the conference standings separating seeds 3-10, expect the unexpected at Madison Square Garden this week.
The last place No. 10 seed DePaul Blue Demons are 60-1 to win this tournament. Compare that to the ACC tourney, where No. 6 seed Syracuse is listed at 80-1.
This should be one of the more entertaining tournaments from start to finish and may provide a good opportunity to back a lower seed in the futures market.
2019 Big East Tournament Odds, Format
- Who: All 10 Big East teams
- Format: Top 6 receive a bye
- When: March 13-16
- Where: New York, NY
- How to Watch: FS1, FOX
- Defending Champion: Villanova
Most Likely Champion
Villanova +200
They aren't without issues, but you have to say the defending national champion Wildcats. Villanova is seeking its third-straight Big East tournament title and fifth consecutive championship appearance. Four teams have won the Big East tournament twice in a row, but none of the four completed the three-peat.
My Pick to Win
Seton Hall (8-1)
The Pirates might be the No. 3 seed in the Big East tournament, but trust No. 1 Villanova and No. 2 Marquette at your own risk — with both teams struggling to close out league play. Jay Wright’s perimeter-oriented team shot just 28.7% from behind the arc in its last seven contests, while Steve Wojciechowski’s bunch let up an average of 1.05 points per possession in its four straight losses.
Seton Hall finished the regular season with two outright wins over the Wildcats and Golden Eagles, so it’s entering the tourney with loads of confidence. It did so at home, but it will still have support at the Garden, where it defeated Kentucky earlier this season.
The Pirates also boast the 50th-ranked Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (96.7 opponents’ points per 100 possessions) in the country while yielding the the third-lowest 3-point clip (34.6%) in league play — kryptonite for the two top seeds.
They own the 28th-rated average height across college basketball, and their guard length has helped produce the conference’s third-highest opponents’ turnover rate (19.4%), too.
While Kevin Willard’s offense was inconsistent during conference play, they boast the league’s second-highest 2-point scoring rate (52.4%). With Myles Powell off the dribble drive and Sandro Mamukelashvili in the low-post, their interior scoring sets up an underrated bevy of perimeter threats.
Kevin Willard’s troops face Georgetown in the opening round, and I’d be content laying a few points. Hall should stymie Matt McClung & Co. from the perimeter. And as I mentioned before, Seton Hall will have a slight home-court advantage, not far behind the St. John’s backing at MSG.
Futures Value
Xavier 10-1
The Musketeers (13-17-1 ATS) have won six of their past seven contests — outright and ATS — including a home victory over Creighton to tip-off their streak. Their much-improved defense triggered the turnaround, at they only gave up a mere 0.98 points per possession during the stretch run.
Head coach Travis Steele’s squad is also allowing the third-lowest 3-point scoring rate (35.3%) in conference play, led by Quentin Goodin and Paul Scruggs’ ball pressure. X will start off with Creighton, and like many teams in the Big East, the Blue Jays rely heavily on a perimeter attack (Big East’s second-highest 3-point scoring rate). Xavier has the personnel to contain Creighton from deep to springboard a run at MSG.
Not only does Naji Marshall’s prowess for switching at every position give the Musketeers defensive flexibility, but he’s also manufacturing 20.9 points per game in his past seven contests. The 6-foot-7 forward missed their regular-season finale (ankle) vs. the Red Storm.
Xavier’s Big East tournament odds would likely be higher if he was fully healthy, but there’s no indication it’ll be a long-term issue.
With an emerging scorer in Scruggs and Tyrique Jones beginning to assert himself in the low-post, there’s no reason this team can’t win the whole thing.
Potential Sleeper
Providence (25-1)
Ed Cooley is no stranger to winning the league tournament, either, with ex-Friars guard Bryce Cotton guiding Providence to the crown in 2014.
No. 8 seed Providence will arrive in New York with some confidence after winning three of its past five — both straight-up and ATS. If the Friars make a deep run at MSG, their first-rated Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (101.5 opponents’ points per 100 possessions) in league play will be the key.
The Friars are not only letting up the Big East’s lowest 3-point clip (33.9%), but they’re also forcing turnovers at a league-high clip (20.9%). Similar to Xavier and Seton Hall, their premier on-ball defense can give the conference’s 3P-reliant upper echelon a handful — despite failing to knock off Villanova or Marquette this season.
Don’t forget about four-star freshman A.J. Reeves, who appeared to finally hit his stride with 24 points in Providence’s 13-point win over Butler on Saturday. He dealt with a foot injury that kept him out of action from Dec. 16 through Jan. 27.
Alongside Alpha Diallo (16.1 ppg), Reeves is a fine sleeper candidate to breakout in “the world’s most famous arena.” Gus Johnson will have something special up his sleeve if so. Reeves could be the missing piece Providence needs on its very inconsistent offense that has held it back all year.
Cooley and his Friars are 12-5 at MSG since the 2013-14 campaign, going 8-4 in the Big East tournament during that stretch. Ed knows how to win at the Garden.
Providence opens up vs. the ninth-seeded Bulldogs, who they just beat in the season finale, before a potential meeting with top seed Villanova.
Opening Round Bet
Butler lost four of its last five contests ATS, two of them coming vs. the Friars. Be sure to check out the betting preview in our Wednesday guide.
