Michigan will attempt to do something that no team has ever accomplished at the Big Ten tournament: win it three straight times. A few teams have come close since it began in 1998, but none have finished the job.
John Beilein's bunch has won the tourney in each of the past two seasons — once as a No. 5 seed and once as a No. 8 seed, the lowest seed to ever win the Big Ten tournament. Although no seed lower than an eight has ever won it, Illinois made the final as a double digit seed in both 1999 and 2008.
Let's take a closer look at the bracket and examine the futures odds.
2019 Big Ten Tournament Odds, Format
- Who: All 14 Big Ten teams
- Format: Top 10 receive a bye; top 4 a double-bye
- When: March 13-17
- Where: Chicago, Ill.
- How to Watch: BTN, CBS
- Defending Champion: Michigan
Who Should Win
Michigan State +170
Tom Izzo’s crew hasn’t advanced beyond the round of 32 in its past three trips to the NCAA Tournament, but don’t expect the Spartans to falter early on in the conference tourney.
Despite a season-ending injury to guard Josh Langford (foot) and forward Nick Ward’s unknown status (hairline fracture), the Spartans claimed a share of the league’s regular season title en route to a No. 1 seed. And more importantly to bettors, they finished 22-9 against the spread.
The trigger to their triumph is point guard Cassius Winston (19.0 points per game), who owns the nation's third-highest assist rate (44.8%). The Detroit native can control the tempo at both ends with his sound on-ball defense and timely threes, which he shoots at a 41.3% clip.
Overall, Michigan State boasts the fourth-rated Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (121.5 points per 100 possessions) and the 12th-highest eFG% (56.1%). It is especially productive around the rim, partly due to Winston’s deadly vision in the pick-and-roll.
But the most underrated factor in Sparty's success stems from their defense. They tallied the ninth-ranked Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (90.7 opponents’ points per 100 possessions) — their best rating since the 2012-13 season. Even without Ward, Xavier Tillman and Kenny Goins have combined to serve as more than capable rim protectors.
As this team showed in a season sweep of in-state rival Michigan, the Spartans are the team to beat in the Big Ten.
Potential Sleeper
Maryland 16-1
The fifth-seeded Terrapins are often criticized because of head coach Mark Turgeon's inability to excel in March, but he’s also never had this much talent.
Maryland is extremely young, as it has the fourth-youngest team in the country, per KenPom. The Terps have also amassed the highest turnover rate (20.6%) in Big Ten play, which is a little worrisome. But this young team is battle tested and collected valuable experience throughout the season that should pay dividends in March.
The Terps’ ceiling is evident, producing a top-30 offensive and defensive rebounding rate. That’s led by Bruno Fernando’s dominance around the rim, as he’s quietly evolved into one of the top big men in college hoops. They’ve tallied the second-highest 3-point clip (36.3%) in the conference, too.
They’ve also produced the 20th-rated AdjD (93.8 opponents’ points per 100 possessions) in the nation, led by Fernando and fellow big Jalen Smith’s elite rim protection.
Turgeon’s crew has an intriguing path to the tournament semifinals. Maryland will first face the winner of Rutgers-Nebraska, which it swept in the regular season, before a potential duel with No. 4 Wisconsin. The two programs split their two meetings, yet Maryland’s road loss in Madison was clouded by a questionable third foul on Fernando when the Terps held an early second-half lead.
Maryland benefits from being on the side of the bracket with the top seeds that don't force turnovers, which will allow it to mask that deficiency. Buy into the Baby Terps in March.
Lottery Ticket
Penn State 40-1
The 10th-seeded Nittany Lions have been criminally undervalued, covering nine of their final 10 regular season games. A pair of those covers were outright wins over Michigan and Maryland.
Their much-improved play is guided by 6-foot-8 Lamar Stevens (19.8 ppg), who's scored at least 16 points in each of his past 13 games. With Stevens and Mike Watkins leading the way inside, Penn State has amassed the fifth-highest two-point scoring rate (52.5%) in Big Ten play. They've also gotten increased production from a younger group that has gained confidence as the season progressed.
Penn State has even manufactured a top-four rebounding rate at both ends of the court, along with the third-highest opponents’ turnover rate (19.2%). It’s been able to control the pace as a result, notching the third-highest Adjusted Tempo (68.0) during league play.
The Nittany Lions also play tremendous defense. They are extremely active, while remaining disciplined. Penn State's defense ranked in the top 25 nationally in efficiency and led the Big Ten in steal rate during conference play. Josh Reaves is one of the best defenders in the league.
Pat Chambers’ troops open with No .7 Minnesota, which they nearly upset on the road amid an eight-game skid to start conference play. It would then square off with No. 2 Purdue, which needed a late spurt in both meetings to pull away in overtime and regulation, respectively.
Don’t sleep on the Nittany Lions.
Opening Round Bet
Illinois-Northwestern: Value in a No. 11-14 matchup? You bet. Check out the betting preview coming Wednesday.
