UC Irvine breezed through the regular season with a 15-1 conference record and the top overall seed in theBig West tournament. However, this eight-team tournament, which awards no byes, has not been kind to No. 1 seeds in recent history. The top seed in the Big West has won the tournament once in the past six years.
Can the Anteaters (-180) buck that trend and secure a ticket to the dance or will we see more upsets in Anaheim?
Let's take a closer look at futures odds, starting with the clear favorite and then a few potential contenders.
2019 Big West Tournament Odds, Format
- Who: Top 8 Big West teams (Cal Poly DNQ)
- Format: Standard eight-team bracket (no byes)
- When: March 14-16
- Where: Anaheim, CA
- How to Watch: ESPN3, ESPNU, ESPN2
- Defending Champion: Cal State Fullerton
Who Should Win?
UC Irvine -180
The Anteaters won the regular season by five games, so it shouldn't surprise anyone they are -180 to win the Big West tournament as well. They brought everyone back from a team that lost in last year's final to Cal State Fullerton.
It all starts on the defensive end. Irvine's half-court man-to-man defense ranks in the 97th percentile nationally in terms of points per possession allowed, per Synergy.
The Anteaters also have the nation's best 2-point defense as they dominate on that end in the interior. And that's no fluke for a Russell Turner squad that finished in the top-six in 2-point defense in four of the past five seasons (16th in the other).
Irvine also finished first in efficiency during league play on offense and defense. This is a deep and experienced team with plenty of size that plays uber-efficient on both ends of the floor.
If it has a weakness, it's from the line, where the Anteaters shoot a not-so-nice 69%. You can also have success against the 'Eaters if you speed them up and get out in transition. That's what Long Beach State (a potential quarterfinal opponent) did during Irvine's only conference loss of the season.
Irvine is the best team (and I emphasize the word team) in the Big West and has a fair price tag of -180 to ship this tournament.
Potential Futures Value
While UCI is the favorite and best team in the conference, it is only a few points better on a neutral court than No. 2 seed UCSB (+395) — one of three teams that took the Anteaters to overtime this season (UC Davis and Hawaii the others).
The Gauchos are very young outside of their two primary scores in the backcourt. Upperclassmen Ar'Mond Davis and Max Heidegger account for over 50% of UCSB's shot attempts. The problem this year has been a drop-off in efficiency from the perimeter from the high-volume shooter Heidegger.
After shooting over 40% from deep last season in over seven attempts per game, Heidegger was below 25% this year. That's an enormous decrease and especially impactful considering he was the only returning starter from the 2017-18 squad.
Heidegger missed the beginning of the year with a toe injury and missed more time with a concussion, which hasn't helped. However, he has shown signs of life lately from the perimeter, going 8-21 over the past four games. If he can get red-hot, UCSB is a threat (he's certainly capable.) but I don't I don't see enough value at under 4-1.
They do have five players that average double digits, but the other three are all underclassmen. Although Malian freshman center Amadou Sow is excellent down low.
Cal State Fullerton (+850) looks intriguing at +850 even though something has just been off with the Titans this year. They brought everybody back from the team that won this tournament last year and are led by two outstanding senior guards in Kyle Allman and Khalil Ahmad. They play excellent perimeter defense, which will help in a potential semifinal matchup against UCSB.
The problem is I don't think Fullerton can beat Irvine. It's just a terrible matchup. The Titans rely on Allman and Ahmad getting to the hoop but ICI gives up absolutely nothing at the rim. They would need to get out in transition a ton, but their best hope would be a Hawaii upset over Irvine — if they even get through to the final.
Hawaii (+900) is the only other team worth considering in my eyes. The Warriors shoot more threes than any team in the conference and they have plenty of shooters on their well-balanced starting five. They also do an excellent job cleaning up the defensive glass. Hawaii will limit second chance points and if the threes are falling, it could make a run.
The problem is Hawaii has to first beat a veteran Long Beach team for a third time and then would likely get top seed UC Irvine in the semifinals. That's a tough path.
Ultimately, the Big West futures all look fairly priced. I'll personally be rooting for UC Irvine to gran this bid, as I think the Anteaters could give a team fits in the first round of the NCAA tournament.
