Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces on props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.
In this piece, I’m looking at NCAA Tournament player props for Monday’s National Championship between Virginia and Texas Tech. NOTE: I might update this piece as more lines are released.
For March Madness, I am 112-62-12 (+34.90) on player props. Shooter’s shoot, and I have an NCAA Tournament prop-betting strategy.
My National Championship player projections are available for subscribers, so check them out.
You also should look at our live betting odds page for up-to-the-minute lines.
#1 Virginia vs. #3 Texas Tech
- Spread: Virginia -1.5
- Over/Under: 118.0
- Date: Mon., April 8
- Time: 9:20 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
Virginia G Kyle Guy: Under 1.5 Free Throws (+145)
I'll be honest: I don't feel great about this prop, especially since Guy just won a game for the Cavaliers by draining three consecutive last-second free throws.
Guy doesn't get to the line often since he shoots so many 3-pointers — this year he has just 2.2 attempts from the stripe per game — but his .825 free-throw rate is strong.
If Guy is fouled on a shot, he has a very good chance of draining two-plus freebies. In fact, I even have Guy projected for 1.7 free throws against Texas Tech.
But I still lean toward the under. This year Guy has made fewer than two free throws in 17 of 37 games, or 46.0% of the time. With +145 odds, the under has an implied probability of just 40.8%, which means that the market is providing too much of a discount to bettors looking to fade Guy.
Nevertheless, I wouldn't bet under 1.5 any lower than +140.
Virginia G De’Andre Hunter: Over 4.5 Rebounds (-130), Over 2.5 Free Throws (+110)
Although the Cavaliers have an offense in which no one guy dominates, Hunter might be Virginia’s most important player. A balanced contributor, Hunter is second on the team with 14.9 points and 5.0 rebounds.
Additionally, a high percentage of his points come via free throws thanks to his aggressive style of play: He leads the Cavaliers with 4.0 attempts and 3.1 made free throws per game.
Hunter's playing time in the postseason has jumped up to 36.1 minutes per game from the 31.2 he averaged in the regular season. He played just 30 minutes in Round 2 because he had five fouls, but in the Sweet 16, Elite 8 and Final Four, he saw 39, 37 and 37 minutes.
With the enhanced playing time, I have him projected for 5.3 rebounds and 3.0 free throws.
I’d bet over 4.5 rebounds to -165 and over 2.5 free throws to -120.
Virginia F Mamadi Diakite: Over 7.5 Points (-110)
The man in the middle of the Cavaliers offense, Diakite is just fourth on the team with 7.4 points on 21.7 minutes per game, and he scored only two points two days ago against Auburn.
He hardly inspires confidence with his recent performance.
But in the NCAA Tournament he’s averaged 33.6 minutes per game with at least 27 minutes in each contest. With his enhanced playing time, he’s put up 10.8 points per game.
In his nine games this year with 27-plus minutes, Diakite has averaged 10.2 points. I have him projected for 10.1.
I’d bet over 7.5 to -145.
Additional Virginia Player Props (Added Apr. 8, 11:00 a.m. ET)
- G Kyle Guy over 4.5 rebounds (+110): Projection – 4.7
- G Ty Jerome under 2.5 made 3-pointers (+100): Projection – 2.0
Additional Virginia Player Props (Added Apr. 8, 2:00 p.m. ET)
- G Kyle Guy over 2.5 made 3-pointers (-115): Projection – 2.9
- G De'Andre Hunter over 1.5 assists (-115): Projection – 1.9
- G De'Andre Hunter over 6.0 rebounds & assists (-115): Projection – 7.2
- F Mamadi Diakite over 6.0 rebounds (-115): Projection – 6.6
- F Mamadi Diakite over 14.5 points, rebounds & assists (-115): Projection – 17.1
- F Mamadi Diakite over 0.5 free throws (-115): Projection – 1.1
- F Mamadi Diakite under 0.5 made 3-pointers (-115): Projection – 0.2
Texas Tech G Matt Mooney: Under 1.5 Free Throws (+130)
As of Sunday night, I don't see much value in the Red Raider player props. Of whatever's out there, this is the prop I like the most.
I have Mooney projected for 1.7 free throws against the Cavaliers, but I still think there's value on the under with +130 odds.
Mooney is third on the team with 2.4 attempts and 1.8 free throws per game, but there will likely be fewer points than usual to go around for the Texas Tech offense: Virginia is first in the nation with just 55.5 points allowed to opponents.
The Red Raiders are implied for only 58.25 points, compared to the 72.65 per game they have averaged this year. In an offense with diminished scoring capacity, Mooney could have fewer free throws than he usually does.
I wouldn't bet under 1.5 any lower than +130, but I'm comfortable betting it at that number.
Additional Texas Tech Player Props (Added Apr. 8, 11:00 a.m. ET)
- G Jarrett Culver under 1.5 made 3-pointers (-114): Projection – 1.2
- G Matt Mooney under 13.5 points (-114): Projection – 10.2
Additional Texas Tech Player Props (Added Apr. 8, 2:00 p.m. ET)
- G Matt Mooney over 2.5 rebounds (-115): Projection – 3.0
- F Tariq Owens under 0.5 made 3-pointers (-115): Projection – 0.2
Additional Texas Tech Player Props (Added Apr. 8, 4:00 p.m. ET)
- G Matt Mooney under 1.5 made 3-pointers (+115): Projection – 1.2
- F Tariq Owens over 7.5 points (+100): Projection – 8.4
- G Brandone Francis under 5.5 points (+115): Projection – 5.2
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
