The 10-team Colonial conference tournament will begin on Saturday in North Charleston, SC with two first round games between the bottom four seeds.
The top seeds have historically dominated this tourney, as no seed outside of the top four has even made it the final in the past 10 tournaments. That trend could continue this season in a conference that only had four teams finish with a winning record.
Let's zone in on those top contenders and then take a quick look at the only team worth considering as a potential sleeper.
2019 Colonial Conference Tournament Odds, Format
- Who: All 10 Colonial teams
- Format: Top 6 seeds receive a bye
- When: March 9-12
- Where: North Charleston, SC
- How to Watch: CBSSN/CAA.tv
- Defending Champion: Charleston
Who Should Win?
It really comes down to the top three seeds.
- Hofstra (+150) has the Colonial's best offense. Led by star guard Justin Wright-Foreman (26.8 ppg), who can go for 40-plus on any night, the Pride ranked No. 1 in nearly every offensive category during league play, and top 15 nationally in Adjusted Efficiency, Effective FG percentage, turnover percentage, 3-point percentage and free throw percentage. The defense struggles, but Hofstra could simply score its way to a championship. The Pride averaged 83.5 points per game (seventh-best in NCAA).
- Northeastern (+215) owns the second-best offense in the CAA. The Huskies had to play without star guard Vasa Pusica for part of the year, but he's now fully healthy and running the show for a very efficient offense with superb ball movement and shooters all over.
- Charleston (+300) is a notch below the top two seeds, but clearly the third best team in the conference. In fact, the Cougars rank third in both offensive and defensive efficiency during CAA play. They force a ton of turnovers and are excellent on the defensive glass.
You have to include Charleston in the discussion because of this tourney's location. For the third (and final year), the CAA tourney will be played in North Charleston, where the Cougars will feel right at home. The defending champs are seeking their third-straight trip to the final in front of the partisan crowd.
Which of the three teams am I personally backing?
Northeastern, which I rate even as Hofstra — yet, I can get a more generous futures price. Both teams are experienced and have efficient offenses led by excellent senior guards, but I trust Northeastern's defense much more. That's the distinguishing factor, as the Huskies have the best defense in the conference. Although, it is worth monitoring the status of Shawn Occeus, Northeastern's best on-ball defender, who has missed the past nine games.
Also, Hofstra has come back down to earth of late, which I think speaks to its lack of depth. Just look at the Pride's final five games of the regular season:
- Lost at UNCW (+9.5)
- Beat Towson at home in double OT
- Lost to JMU (+14.5) at home in OT
- Won at Drexel by 3
- Won at Delaware by 22
The Pride are vulnerable.
As I previously mentioned, this has generally been a very chalky tournament. You have to go all the way back to 1993 to find a CAA champ outside of the top four seeds when No. 7 seed ECU surprisingly went dancing. If you are looking to invest in a futures sleeper, I only see one viable option.
Potential Sleeper
William and Mary +1450
When ECU made that run, the Colonial had only eight teams — and played a regular eight-team bracket with no byes over three days. That task is much tougher now, as seeds 7-10 would need to win four games in four days. I wouldn't even bother looking at the bottom four seeds for a dark horse.
That really only leaves three options, but I think the only one worth considering is No. 4 seed William and Mary. The Tribe, one of only four original DI teams to never make the NCAA tournament, are very young but have a go-to player inside in double-double machine Nathan Knight.
They also boast the second-best defense in the Colonial. And after a slow start, the Tribe are playing their best basketball of the season during a current five-game winning streak. They should get by a fading Delaware team in their first matchup, which would likely set up a matchup with top seed Hofstra.
And while William and Mary lost both regular season meetings against Hofstra, one came in triple overtime and the other came by six on the road.
I think the Tribe would at least have a shot against a Hofstra team showing cracks of late. (Knight had 39 and 14 in that close road loss).
