Eleven of the 12 MEAC teams will compete in the conference tournament, which tips off Monday night. The tourney will be held in Norfolk, Va., for the seventh-straight year, which should favor top seed Norfolk State on paper. However, Norfolk State hasn't won the MEAC tourney since it was played in Winston-Salem in 2012.
The Spartans have failed to take the title despite being a No. 1 or 2 seed in four of the previous six held in Norfolk. And the last time they were the top seed, they lost in the quarterfinals to No. 8 seed Bethune-Cookman — its first potential opponent this year.
Excluding First Four games, MEAC teams have only won two NCAA Tournament games in 32 appearances. However, those two wins represent two of the four wins by 15 seeds since 2000:
- 2012 Norfolk State beat Missouri
- 2001 Hampton beat Iowa State
The UMBC win over Virginia was a more historic upset from a seeding perspective, but Norfolk State's win over Missouri is the biggest point spread upset in the history of the tournament.
Let's take a look at this year's MEAC tournament field to try to identify a sleeper in a conference that has had more surprise winners than any in recent years. Three of the past six champions have been seeded sixth or lower, including last year's champion NC Central.
2019 MEAC Tournament Odds, Format
- Who: 11 MEAC teams (Florida A&M ineligible)
- Format: Top 5 seeds receive a bye
- When: March 11-16
- Where: Norfolk, Va.
- How to Watch: ESPN2, ESPN3
- Defending Champion: NC Central
Who Should Win?
Norfolk State is the clear favorite here, illustrated by its close to even-money odds. Not only does Norfolk have the best team, the MEAC tournament is played in Norfolk, Va.,, which will also give it a home-court advantage.
The Spartans want to run on offense and excel in transition, but they do struggle at times in the half court. They are more than capable from the perimeter, as they shot just under 40% from deep during league play.
However, this team relies on its excellent man-to-man defense, which ranks in the 97th percentile nationally, per Synergy Sports. They will throw some zone in, but their man is their bread and butter. You're just not going to get anything at the rim against Norfolk State.
Norfolk State is a veteran team with solid depth and great balance. It doesn't rely on any one player, as its top six scorers all average between 8 and 15 points per game. Just look at the first six games of February when it had six different leading scorers.
Throw in the location and it's easy to see why the Spartans are favored to cut down the nets in Norfolk. However, after what looks like a free pass to the semifinals, they will play the winner of Howard and Bethune Cookman — the only two MEAC teams to beat Norfolk State this season.
Let's take a look at those two teams and a few others to identify any potential futures value in the MEAC.
Potential Sleeper
Savannah State 40-1
There are some bad teams in the MEAC, especially on the offensive end. Three MEAC teams rank in the bottom five nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (Delaware State, Coppin State, Maryland Eastern Shore). Cross that trio off and No. 9 seed South Carolina State, which would need to win at Norfolk State if it gets by Eastern Shore.
That leaves only six potential MEAC tourney futures worth considering:
No. 10 seed Morgan State (40-1) wants to fly (top 25 in adjusted tempo) and does force a ton of turnovers, but the Bears are just horribly efficient on both ends. They've also lost eight of nine, but they should get by Coppin State to meet NC A&T, which they played tough on the road in their only matchup. But at the end of the day, this team went 9-20 despite having the easiest schedule in the country.
No. 4 seed Howard (+700) is an interesting study. The Bison have the MEAC's best offense and have won four straight, all on the road. Howard actually finished 8-0 in the conference on the road, including a win at top seed Norfolk State to close out the year (although NSU had nothing to play for) — but just 2-7 at home. I don't get it, but this team has the offense and perimeter shooting to threaten for a title.
The problem is I don't know who will win the quarterfinal matchup between Howard and the defensively-minded No. 5 seed Bethune Cookman (+570). The two two teams split in the regular season and the rubber match is a coin toss.
No. 3 seed NC Central (+385) is the most-experienced team in the conference and will dominate the boards against any MEAC opponent. It also played Norfolk State really tough on the road in an overtime loss in their only meeting. The two-time defending champs won't be an easy out. but they were swept by potential semifinal opponent and No.2 seed NC A&T (+330). The Aggies are also very experienced, but they are terrible on the glass. However, they make up for it with the tourney's best defense and excellent depth.
That leaves No. 6 seed Savannah State (40-1) — one of the funniest profiles in D-1:
- 14.0 second average possession length (shortest in nation)
- No. 2 in the country in Adjusted Tempo
- One of 19 teams to press over 25% of the time
- 57.9% of their shot attempts come from 3 (tops in nation)
- Shoot 29.4% from 3 (eighth-worst nationally)
It's a team that just wants to run with a bunch of 30% three-point shooters chucking threes. In fact, here are the only three teams in the past 20 years to shoot more than 55% of their shots from three:
Yes, that list is Savannah State the past three seasons and nobody else. And this year marks the highest ever 3P rate over that span and likely ever.
They don't do anything well, but all eight of their MEAC losses came by single digits (seven by six or less). If they can actually get hot from the perimeter, who knows? If you're looking for a lottery ticket in the MEAC, the Tigers are your team.
