The Missouri Valley conference tournament — aka Arch Madness — will tip off on Thursday night in St. Louis when the four bottom seeds battle it out in the first round.
Historically, this tournament has been very chalky; 39 of the 42 previous winners have been a top three seed. However, this was a down year in the Missouri Valley and feels more wide open than usual. In fact, this was the first time ever that the regular season champion lost six conference games.
Let's take a look at the bracket and see whether or not it might be worth going against history and taking an MVC long shot.
2019 Missouri Valley Tournament Odds, Format
- Who: All 10 MVC teams
- Format: Top 6 seeds get a bye
- When: March 7-10
- Where: St. Louis, MO
- How to Watch: CBS/CBSSN/ESPN3
- Defending Champion: Loyola
Who Should Win?
Loyola-Chicago (+180), which won both the MVC regular season crown and Arch Madness title last season, returns as the No. 1 seed and favorite once again.
Although the Ramblers (19-12, 12-6) don’t present much futures value, I give them the edge because of their sound defensive traits. Led by 6-foot-9 Cameron Krutwig, they own the highest defensive rounding rate (20.9%) across college basketball. Their defense grinds down the opposition, as their opponents average the nation's fourth-highest possession length (19.0 seconds).
Moreover, guard Lucas Williamson — their best on-ball defender — returned for their final two games after missing the previous 10 with a broken hand. Loyola really missed the 6-foot-4 sophomore's tenacity on the defensive end. His presence will loom large as the tournament progresses.
At the other end, Loyola wing Marques Townes (15.9 points per game) — the conference player of the year — has developed into one of the most underrated all-around playmakers in college basketball.
The Ramblers will start with a very beneficial scheduling spot, as the winner of the 8/9 game on Friday night will have a quick turnaround to play Loyola at noon ET on Friday. The No. 1 seed is 28-0 in that game in the 28 MVC tourneys held in St. Louis.
The No. 1 or 2 seed has won six of the past seven Arch Madness titles — a streak the Ramblers are in prime position to continue.
Potential Sleeper
Illinois State +1800
Illinois State had an extremely disappointing season and never lived up to the expectations of a team picked second in the preseason poll. Not only did the Redbirds not finish second, they finished seventh, which means they will play on the first day of Arch Madness.
And playing on the first day has been a death wish historically in the Missouri Valley tournament.
Only one team that has played in the opening round has ever made the semis (won two games). The two winners of the first round games are a combined 1-55 in the 28 MVC tourneys held in St. Louis. No team has ever won three games in three days to just make the final.
That said, I think Illinois State has an outside shot to change history.
Dan Muller’s crew opens up with Evansville, which it swept this season. A victory would set up a matchup with No. 4 seed Drake. which Illinois State also swept. Plus, Bulldog freshman guard D.J. Wilkins (11.1 ppg) is out for the season with a broken left ankle.
ISU’s potency comes in transition, sparked by the third-highest defensive rebounding rate (22.7%) in MVC play. It manufactured the fourth-highest 2-point scoring rate (50.8%) as a result. The Redbirds also triggered the league’s third-most 3-point attempts per game. If they get hot from deep, they can beat anybody in this conference.
Senior 6-foot-6 guard Milik Yarbrough represents the Redbirds’ catalyst, averaging 16.8 points, 7.0 rebounds and 3.1 assists per contest. He presents plenty of takeover potential, especially over a four-day stretch, and can lean on a legit inside presence in senior Phil Fayne.
After a very disappointing season, Illinois State can start fresh in Arch Madness. It certainly has the experience to draw on after making back-to-back MVC title appearances. The Redbirds have a shot to overcome history and make the semis, where anything becomes possible with their talent.
