The Mountain West conference tournament will be held at the Thomas & Mack Center for the 13th straight year, but that hasn't helped the local Rebels out over the past decade. UNLV hasn't won this tournament since 2008 when tournament MVP Wink Adams led the Rebs to a win over freshman Jimmer Freddete and BYU in the final.
Last year's champion San Diego State has made the championship game in eight of the past 10 seasons. The Aztecs, who have historically dominated this tournament, will start their 2019 tournament campaign off with a game against those Rebels in the quarterfinals. The winner will in all likelihood then meet clear tourney favorite Nevada.
Let's take a closer look at the top seed Wolf Pack and then discuss which potential sleeper might be worth a few dollars in the futures market.
2019 Mountain West Tournament Odds, Format
- Who: All 11 Mountain West teams
- Format: Top 5 seeds receive a bye
- When: March 13-16
- Where: Las Vegas, Nev.
- How to Watch: Stadium, CBSSN, CBS
- Defending Champion: San Diego State
Who Should Win
Nevada -170
When the trio of Caleb Martin, Cody Martin and Jordan Caroline announced they were returning to Nevada for their senior seasons, the Mountain West Championship was an afterthought. While the Wolf Pack could only muster a tie for the regular season title, they are still the team that should hoist the tournament championship trophy.
Nevada ranks 23rd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 23rd in 2P%. Within Mountain West conference play they are second in both categories and third in effective field goal percentage. Caleb Martin (19.6 ppg) and Carolina (17.7 ppg) have been consistent scoring options all season, while Cody Martin (11.6 ppg) has greatly improved from the foul line (78%) and 3P (37%). With Portland transfer Jazz Johnson (11.1 ppg, 44.1% 3P) scalding hot from 3P, the Wolf Pack bring explosive scoring options at every position.
The Wolf Pack’s biggest improvement has been on the defensive end. They rank first in Mountain West play in adjusted defensive efficiency, effective field goal defense, turnovers forced and blocks per game.
With their athleticism and shot-making ability, Nevada is the most likely winner.
My Pick To Win
Utah State (+230)
Nevada was seeded first last season but still didn’t win the conference tournament. Why would this year be any different? Utah State offers better odds while potentially avoiding both Nevada and San Diego State until the finals. Two of their three conference losses were to the Wolf Pack and Aztecs.
The Aggies feature the top adjusted offensive efficiency rating in conference play, while dominating in rebounding. Utah State is the best team in the nation in limiting opponents on the offensive boards. They also boast the fourth best 2P% defense.
Utah State just swept the conference awards, earning Player of the Year (Sam Merrill), Defensive Player of the Year (Neemias Queta), and Coach of the Year (Craig Smith). The Aggies enter the tournament on a seven-game winning streak and have won 14 of their last 15 games.
The Aggies split the season series with Fresno State, but are a much better matchup against both San Diego State and Nevada in the finals.
Potential Sleeper
UNLV (+3750) is always dangerous playing in Las Vegas and ended the season winning five of its last seven games. The Rebels have started to click on offense. They're the top offensive rebounding team in the Mountain West, and the second best 3P shooting team at 36.8% in conference. Guard Kris Clyburn (13.9 ppg) is averaging 20.5 points and shooting an incredible 73.3 % (11 of 15) from 3P range over his last two games.
If they beat San Diego State in the quarterfinals, the Rebels would play a home game against Nevada. At their current price, this is a great value.
