Wiseguys stayed hot yesterday, cashing the Iowa spread and Tennessee under en route to a 2-1 Friday. Now sharps turn their attention to the pivotal Round of 32.
After analyzing Saturday’s 8-game NCAA Tournament slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified three games receiving sharp action from professional bettors.
All odds as of 1:30 a.m. ET on Saturday. As always consult our live odds and public money pages for the most up-to-date information.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Maryland vs. LSU
12:10 p.m. ET | CBS
Sharp angle: Maryland (moved from +2.5 to +2) and Under (moved from 147 to 145)
This East Region second-round early game is by far the most lopsided Saturday play. And of course, wiseguys are zigging while the public zags.
LSU (27-6) opened as a short 2-point favorite and more than 80% of bets are rushing to lay the points with the Tigers. However, despite this overwhelming support, the line has essentially remained frozen at LSU -2.
In the brief instances that it touched +2.5, it was quickly gobbled up by value-driven sharps. It's even dipped to -1.5. This sharp line freeze/reverse line movement indicates liability on the Maryland (23-10).
The Terps also match two Bet Labs Pro systems: NCAA Tournament Contrarian (59.3% ATS since 2005) and NCAA Tournament Slow Paced Dogs (61.3% ATS).
Our very own Sean Koerner has the game pegged at LSU -0.5, practically a coin flip. (You can see Sean's projected spread for every possible tournament matchup in our bracket simulator.)
Sharps are also betting this over/under.
The total opened at 147 and bets are split right down the middle, but more than 65% of dollars are on the under.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we tracked two steam moves, with Goodfellas hammering the Under 147.5 and Under 146.5. This overload of professional action forced oddsmakers to drop the line down to 145.
Baylor vs. Gonzaga
7:10 p.m. ET | TBS
Sharp angle: Under (148.5)
Sharps and squares (casual bettors who bet for fun) are on opposite sides of this over/under.
Gonzaga is the top scoring team in the country (nearly 90 PPG). Meanwhile, Baylor just dropped 79 on Syracuse's vaunted zone defense. So this game is a lock to sail over, right?
The total opened at 148. Heavy public betting on the over (66%), pushed this line up to 148.5. That's when wiseguys pounced on the artificially inflated Under 148.5, triggering sharp reverse line movement across the market.
We haven't seen a single conflicting over move.
Auburn vs. Kansas
9:40 p.m. ET | TBS
Sharp angle: Under (148)
This total is flying somewhat under the radar because it's the late game of the night. But wiseguys had it circled from the get-go.
The over/under opened at 147.5. Nearly 70% of bets are taking the over, but the line has remained frozen at 147.5. Typically, that level of public support would force sportsbooks to adjust the line up a point or more.
The fact that the line remains frozen indicates liability on the under, with oddsmakers worried about giving an extra half point or full point to contrarian wiseguys.
The under is only receiving 32% of bets but nearly 50% of dollars– further evidence of big pro wagers banking on a low-scoring game.
Sean Koerner has this total pegged at 143.
