Why doesn't Vegas choose the NCAA Tournament bracket, or the College Football Playoff? Surely you've heard that adage before. Oddsmakers (in theory) are good judges of a team's actual ability, so they should be the ones making these semi-subjective decisions on which teams get to compete for the sport's top prize.
Let's take that theory for a spin. Using The Action Network's college basketball power ratings, which are similar to what an oddsmaker would use to create point spreads, we'll create the 68-team field ahead of Selection Sunday.
2019 NCAA Tournament Vegas Bracketology
The Process
We're not really interested in evaluating resumes here at The Action Network. We want to look forward and predict what's going to happen in futures games, not look backward.
So for the purposes of this exercise, we're not trying to identify the most deserving teams. We're including the best teams.
The NCAA Tournament committee takes the most deserving teams, for the most part. And that makes perfect sense. Wins and losses have to matter — Penn State can't get in with a 14-18 record no matter how good its underlying metrics are. You have to win. But here, in the oddsmakers' bracket, the Nittany Lions will go dancing.
We've seeded all the teams according to their power rating, within the parameters of the tournament. Automatic bids will go to the actual winners of the conference tournaments so far, then seeded by power ratings.
We used some conventional tournament seeding practices — like the four-lowest at-large bids being in the 11 vs. 11 play-in games and mid-major conference automatic qualifiers being seeded at 12 or worse unless they have a truly exceptional resume (power rating in this case, like Buffalo).
The Results
The top 25 or so teams in our ratings align fairly close with how BracketMatrix.com, which compiles more than 100 bracket projections, sees the real field shaking out. There are some seeding differences — Florida State as a No. 3 in the real bracket but a No. 5 in ours — but for the most part, things are pretty close and the teams are about the same.
The 8-11 seeds are where you start to see some real differences, with teams like Penn State, Nebraska and Clemson comfortably in the field in our bracket. They'll all miss the real NCAA Tournament, outside of maybe Clemson.
All in all, this Vegas-made bracket has about 63 of the 68 teams that will make the tournament. That's inflated since we took all the automatic qualifiers, but for the at-large bids, there aren't too many discrepancies between resume and underlying metrics.
The "Snubs"
With these ratings, you're going to have some teams left out that deserved to get in, based on wins and losses, but aren't as strong based on the underlying metrics. Among the snubs (with the rating in parentheses):
- St. John's (61)
- Arizona State (57)
- Temple (75)
- Seton Hall (56)
All of these teams have a good shot to make the actual NCAA Tournament, but would fall well short of an at-large bid in our bracket. In fact, only Seton Hall would even be among the "Next Four Out." The rest wouldn't even sniff the bubble.
South Region
- #1 Duke vs. #16 Iona
- #8 N.C. State vs. #9 Oklahoma
- #4 Wisconsin vs. #13 Northeastern
- #5 Kansas State vs. #12 Vermont
- #3 Texas Tech vs. #14 Old Dominion
- #6 Maryland vs. #11 Utah State
- #7 Marquette vs. #10 Baylor
- #2 Kentucky vs. #15 Bradley
This region is pretty straightforward, with all 16 teams posting good enough resumes to make the real NCAA Tournament.
Some of the seedings are little different — Marquette probably won't slip to a No. 7 come the selection show, and Oklahoma and N.C. State are higher than you'd expect in the 8-9 matchup.
This region is the most interesting to me, with Vermont, Utah State and Northeastern all live underdogs as double-digit seeds.
West Region
- #1 Gonzaga vs. #16 Garner Webb
- #8 Florida vs. #9 UCF
- #4 Virginia Tech vs. #13 Yale
- #5 Iowa State vs. #12 Wofford
- #3 Purdue vs. #14 Northern Kentucky
- #6 Houston vs. #11 Iowa
- #7 Clemson vs. #10 Penn State
- #2 North Carolina vs. #15 Colgate
Here's where things start to get interesting. You've got 14-18 Penn State as a No. 10 seed — not even in an 11-11 play-in game!
You also have Clemson, which will likely miss the real tournament, comfortably in as a No. 7, and Wofford all the way back at No. 12 when the Terriers could be a No. 7 or 8 seed based on resume.
Midwest Region
- #1 Michigan State vs. #16 Farleigh Dickinson/Prairie View A&M
- #8 Syracuse vs. #9 Ole Miss
- #4 LSU vs. #13 Liberty
- #5 Louisville vs. #12 Murray State
- #3 Kansas vs. #14 Georgia State
- #6 Mississippi State vs. #11 TCU/Ohio State
- #7 Buffalo vs. #10 Oregon
- #2 Tennessee vs. #15 Montana
There's some debate about Ohio State and TCU's cases for a real tournament berth, but BracketMatrix has them both in. They just made our field.
This theoretical region could offer some really fun second-round matchups, like Tennessee-Buffalo and LSU-Louisville.
East Region
- #1 Virginia vs. #16 NC Central/NDSU
- #8 Cincinnati vs. #9 Nebraska
- #4 Florida State vs. #13 UC Irvine
- #5 Villanova vs. #12 New Mexico State
- #3 Auburn vs. #14 St. Bonaventure
- #6 Nevada vs. #11 VCU/Indiana
- #7 Texas vs. #10 Saint Mary's
- #2 Michigan vs. #15 Abilene Christian
Outside of the West, this is the most "undeserving" region. Texas and Nebraska are both comfortably in the field and either favored or a pick'em in the first round. Even Indiana snuck into the 11 vs. 11 play-in game.
