The Ohio Valley Conference Tournament will tip off in Evansville, Ind., on Wednesday — it's been played at a neutral site since 1992.
This is one of the most highly-anticipated mid-major tourneys, as it features one of the best offenses in the country in Belmont and one of the nation's best players in Murray State's Ja Morant. The conference is very top heavy, but both top seeds have to worry about legit threats in Austin Peay and Jacksonville State.
Let's take a closer look at the field before closing out with the only future I would recommend.
2019 Ohio Valley Tournament Odds, Format
- Who: Top 8 seeds of 12 total OVC teams
- Format: 1/2 seeds get double bye; 3/4 seeds get single bye
- When: March 6-9
- Where: Evansville, Ind.
- How to Watch: ESPN+/ESPN3/ESPNUESPN2
- Defending Champion: Murray State
Who Should Win?
You always have to focus on the top two OVC seeds since they get double byes into the semifinals. No. 1 seed Belmont (-130) has the best overall roster, led by senior guard and NBA prospect Dylan Windler, who averages 21.1 ppg and 10.3 rebounds. The Bruins also have the criminally underrated Rick Byrd, who has remarkably been head coach at Belmont since 1986.
Byrd's motion offense is a beautiful sight. Belmont really doesn't have any glaring weaknesses, especially on offense, where it ranks in the top 20 in Adjusted Efficiency and turnover rate. The Bruins are excellent and worthy of at least at-large consideration if they fall short here.
Speaking of pro prospects, No. 2 seed Murray State (+155) is led by projected lottery pick guard Ja Morant — a walking triple-double. The Racers are a one-man band in my eyes, but Morant is one heck of a solo act. Murray State won this tournament last year, but no team has gone back-to-back in the OVC this century.
While most anticipate seeing a Belmont-Murray State final, there is one OVC team that neither wants any part of.
Potential Sleeper
Jacksonville State +900
The Ohio Valley really should just have a four-team tournament this season, as only four teams have a realistic shot. There's a reason why Westgate grouped the bottom four seeds as the field with 20-1 odds. That leaves Austin Peay (+1350) and Jacksonville State (+900) as the only potential sleepers worth considering.
Austin Peay has an experienced roster and an explosive offense, but I just don't trust its defense. The Governors played Belmont and Murray State close in all three regular season clashes but still went 0-3 and allowed 94-plus points in two of three.
I just can't see their defense, which ranks 296th in 2P%, stopping a Belmont offense that ranks No. 2 nationally in that same category.
I'm much more intrigued by Jacksonville State, which can't potentially face Belmont until the championship.
The Gamecocks are kryptonite for both Murray State and Belmont because of their dominant front line, led by stud big man Jason Burnell (17.0 ppg, 9.6 rpg).
They just seem to enjoy a layup drill against both team's much less physical frontcourts. Just look at what Burnell did in three games against both top seeds in 2019:
- 30 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists
- 21 points, 15 rebounds, 1 assist
- 19 points, 12 rebounds, 8 assists
Belmont and Murray went a combined 32-4 in conference play. They went 32-1 against everybody but Jacksonville State — and 0-3 against the Gamecocks, who won all three games by double digits.
This isn't just a one year fluke, either. Belmont had never been swept by any OVC team until Jacksonville State last season — and it happened again this year. Ray Harper is an excellent head coach that is extremely familiar with Byrd's motion offense and knows how to slow it down.
The Gamecocks will simply dominate the glass against any OVC team, especially the two top seeds that play very small. (Jacksonville State ranked No. 1 in both offensive rebounding and defensive rebounding percentage in conference play.)
Jacksonville State also boasts the most experienced roster in the Ohio Valley by a wide margin, ranking third overall in the country. Five of its top six contributors are seniors and the other a junior.
On today's episode, @chadmillman attempts to catch @Stuckey2 off his game.
The attempt is met with… whatever the opposite of success is. pic.twitter.com/TRDELb2KGH
— The Favorites Podcast (@TheFavoritesPod) February 26, 2019
A few other notes worth considering:
- Jacksonville State played a few tough power conference opponents early in the season, which I think is paying dividends during its seven-game winning streak.
- A few contributors remain from the team that won this tournament in 2017 when the Gamecocks defeated No. 1 seed Belmont in the semifinals.
- Their potential semifinal opponent, Murray State, owns one of the nation's best three-point defenses, but Jacksonville State is one of the least three-point reliant teams in the country.
Look, Morant could easily go off and take out Jacksonville State in the semis, but it won't be easy. Jacksonville State's frontline, physicality and experience simply creates a nightmare matchup for both top seeds.
I truly believe the Gamecocks are the only team in the Ohio Valley that can beat Belmont, as they've done in each of their past four meetings.
