Eight of the top nine Summit League seeds will compete for an NCAA Tournament bid in Sioux Falls, S.D., starting on Saturday.
Before betting any futures, keep in mind that the top two seeds South Dakota State and Omaha play on Saturday, benefiting from a potential day off before Monday's semifinals. The No. 3 and No. 4 seeds (IPFW and North Dakota State) will not have the same luxury, as they play their first games on Sunday.
Let's take a closer look at the field to determine if anybody can stop Mike Daum and the South Dakota State Jackrabbits.
2019 Summit Conference Tournament Odds, Format
- Who: Top 8 seeds (Denver did not qualify)
- Format: Single-elimination
- When: March 9-12
- Where: Sioux Falls, S.D.
- How to Watch: ESPN+
- Defending Champion: South Dakota State
Who Should Win?
There is no question that the team to beat is South Dakota State (-220), which has won three straight Summit League Tournaments. And not only are the Jackrabbits going for four straight, star forward Mike Daum will attempt to win an unprecedented fourth straight conference tournament MVP.
Nobody in the league can contain Daum, who averages a gaudy 25.6 points and 11.7 rebounds per game. The senior, who had 38 and 20 against IPFW earlier this month, ranks ninth on the all-time NCAA scoring list and is just 124 points away from cracking the top 5.
The Jackrabbits have won 13 of their past 14 games — with the lone loss coming by 1-point on the road against No. 2 seed Omaha. South Dakota State ranks second in the nation in effective field goal percentage and led the conference in total rebounding percentage.
You can pretty much book South Dakota State in the championship game. The Jacks have a very favorable path, as they went 6-0 against the three teams in their half of the bracket, winning by an average margin of 17.7. Although, they did need a miracle to beat North Dakota State on the road.
South Dakota State wins at the buzzer!
— CollegeBB News (@CollegeBBNCAA) February 17, 2019
Still, I don't see anybody in the top half slowing down Daum and the Jacks. So, if you wanted to look elsewhere for a potential future, I'd focus on the bottom half of the Summit bracket.
Potential Sleepers
No. 3 seed IPFW (+1100) handed the Jakcks one of their two conference losses this season, but the Mastodons lost four straight to end the year, despite holding a halftime lead in three. Senior John Konchar is one of the most underrated mid-major players, but the Dons play absolutely no defense. They also got an unfortunate first round draw with a true road game against No. 6 seed South Dakota.
South Dakota (+1000) is intriguing since it does host this tournament and won four of its last five to close the year — with the sole loss coming in a close road game vs. South Dakota State. The Coyotes don't have the explosiveness on offense like the top seeds, but they did rank No. 1 in defensive effective FG% during league play. The problem is they lack depth (No. 317 in bench minutes) and would have to win three games in three days to win this tourney.
As I mentioned above, No. 2 seed Omaha (+700) is the only team to beat South Dakota State over its past 14 games. The Mavericks have a legit offense, ranking top 25 in the country in Offensive Rating and led the entire nation in turnover rate, averaging just 11.9 turnovers per 100 possessions.
The Mavericks rank in the top 10 nationally in 3P% and shot above a 40% clip from deep during league play.
Omaha can't stop anybody, but it could shoot its way to the title. I think there's value in anything over +500 if you dare take Daum on.
