The West Coast conference tournament will tip off on Thursday in Las Vegas with two opening round games. The WCC really rewards the top performing teams from the regular season, as the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds essentially get a triple bye into the semifinals. Therefore, Gonzaga and St. Mary's have to win only two games to win the tourney, while the four bottom seeds must win five games in five days!
Let's take a closer look at the bracket and determine if there is any betting value in the futures market.
2019 West Coast Tournament Odds, Format
- Who: All 10 WCC teams
- Format: Top 2 seeds get triple bye into semis; 3/4 double bye, 5/6 single bye
- When: March 7-12
- Where: Las Vegas, Nevada
- How to Watch: ESPN/ESPN/ESPNU/BYUtv
- Defending Champion: Gonzaga
Who Should Win?
This isn't rocket science. Gonzaga (-850) is an enormous favorite to win its seventh straight West Coast tournament championship.
Gonzaga is one of the top three teams in the nation playing in a league that will likely not send any other teams to the NCAA tournament unless the Zags get upset. They not only went 16-0 in conference play, they won every game by double digits.
I don't have to tell you how good this Gonzaga offense is, but just as a reminder — it ranks No. 1 in the country in adjusted efficiency, effective FG% and 2P%. If it has one weakness, it's lack of depth. That's it.
And as if Gonzaga needed any help in a tournament in which it has made the championship game in 21 straight years, the WCC changed the format this season as a gesture to convince Gonzaga to stay when rumors started that it might bolt for the Mountain West conference.
Prior to this year, the top six seeds all got a bye into the quarterfinals. But starting in 2019, the top two seeds will essentially get a triple bye into the semifinals. Gonzaga now needs to win one less game to win another title.
Considering I make Gonzaga's true odds -700, I don't see any futures value on the Zags, who are priced as high as -1200 at Westgate. (They opened a shockingly high -1500, which is the highest I can ever remember for any conference tournament.)
Potential Sleeper
San Francisco 55-1
I would love to make a case for senior-laden San Diego (100-1) — the only team that seems to always play Gonzaga tight (relatively speaking). However, the Toreros would need to win four games in four days just to get to a potential matchup with the Zags. No thanks.
You simply can't back any of the four teams playing in the opening round — unless you hate money and want to bet Portland at 550-1. After not winning a single WCC game all season, the Pilots "simply" need to win five in five days.
I also don't see much value with St. Mary's at just over 8-1, which would be a similar price you'd get on the moneyline if it played Gonzaga in the final.
The only team that intrigues me from a futures perspective in the West Coast conference is San Francisco at 55-1. The Dons have plenty of experience, size and talent. They simply faltered down the stretch after they knew their at-large chances were shot. Maybe they regroup and play like the team that was in the discussion for a possible at-large berth for the majority of the season.
San Fran doesn't turn it over, and it can rebound and shoot from three. I think the Dons get by their first opponent to set up a third meeting with the Zags. While Gonzaga did sweep the season series, keep in mind the Dons held a lead in the final few minutes of their first meeting.
They will likely need to shoot the lights out, hope for an off-night from Gonzaga (and potentially even some foul trouble). Also, it is at least worth mentioning that Gonzaga will have eight days off in between its last regular season game and its first tourney game in this new format. So, maybe the Zags also come out flat.
You can always take the field at +575 vs. Gonzaga, but if you must go against Mark Few's bunch with another WCC future, I'd give San Fran a try at 55-1.
