The 2022 Final Four is set!
Mike Krzyzewski's retirement tour takes a poetic turn as his Duke Blue Devils prepare to take on the North Carolina Tar Heels in the latest chapter of their historic rivalry. Also headed to New Orleans are the Kansas Jayhawks — the only No. 1 seed still standing — and the Villanova Wildcats.
We used the college basketball power ratings created by our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, to project each team's chances of advancing to the final then winning the championship.
Editor's note: The following projections were updated on March 28 to reflect the latest adjustments to Sean Koerner's power ratings, namely factoring in the injury to Justin Moore, Villanova's second-leading scorer who suffered a torn Achilles in the Wildcats' Elite Eight win over Houston.
Final Four Predictions
| Final Four Team | Chances to Reach Final | Chances to Win Championship |
|---|---|---|
| Duke | 60.7% | 31.0% |
| Kansas | 62.5% | 36.1% |
| Villanova | 37.5% | 17.0% |
| North Carolina | 39.3% | 15.9% |
Duke — which draws the lowest-seeded Final Four team in North Carolina — and Kansas have the best chances to advance to the championship game given they're favored to win their respective semifinal matchups. » Find Final Four odds here
But how do our expert's projections compare to the national title odds? Let's take a quick look at a side-by-side comparison:
NCAA Tournament Championship Odds
| Team | Action's Projections | FanDuel Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas | 36.1% | 32.7% (+180) |
| Duke | 31.0% | 35.2% (+160) |
| Villanova | 17.0% | 16.7% (+450) |
| North Carolina | 15.9% | 15.3% (+500) |
| FanDuel odds as of March 28. Note that the "juice" or "vig" has been removed from the implied probabilities. | ||
Based on these comparisons, it seems Kansas could be a potential value bet with the second-best odds (+180) after Duke (+160), but the best projected chance to cut down the nets in New Orleans according to our expert's projections.
So how would the Jayhawks fare against the Blue Devils or Tar Heels in a hypothetical final?
Our expert's projections would give Kansas a 53.6% chance of beating Duke and a 64.2% chance of beating North Carolina in either hypothetical final.
