Now that the 2022 March Madness bracket has been released, what are every teams' chances of advancing to the Final Four in New Orleans?
Based on the model of our Director of Predictive Analytics Sean Koerner — whose brackets for the last two NCAA Tournaments finished in the 99th and 95th percentiles on ESPN — the teams with the top-three chances to advance to the semifinals are all No. 1-seeds: Gonzaga (54.4%) in the West, Arizona (35.6%) in the South and Kansas (29.0%) in the Midwest.
But the team with the fourth-best projected chance isn't the East's No. 1 seed Baylor (25.0%) — it's 2-seed Kentucky (26.0%) in the bottom of the same bracket.
The lowest seeds with at least a 10% chance of making it to New Orleans are 5-seeded Iowa and Houston, but neither offer the biggest potential betting edges when comparing our expert Koerner's projections to FanDuel's Final Four odds.
Let's find out which teams are — right after we run through Koerner's projected chances of every team advancing to each round by region below.
Note: Projections assume that the favored team wins each of the First Four matchups.
March Madness Bracket Predictions
Below we've broken out our probabilities for every team to advance to each round of the 2022 NCAA Tournament, with notable teams bolded. You can toggle between regions on desktop — or by using the dropdown menu on mobile.
Best Final Four Odds
| Team (Seed) | Action Projections | FanDuel Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Gonzaga (1) | 54.4% | 58.5% (-140) |
| Arizona (1) | 35.6% | 40.8% (+145) |
| Kansas (1) | 29.0% | 32.3% (+210) |
| Kentucky (2) | 26.0% | 29.4% (+240) |
| Baylor (1) | 25.0% | 32.3% (+210) |
| Auburn (2) | 24.4% | 23.3% (+330) |
| Tennessee (3) | 19.5% | 14.3% (+600) |
| Iowa (5) | 18.3% | 20.4% (+390) |
| UCLA (4) | 16.6% | 11.8% (+750) |
| Duke (2) | 14.6% | 17.9% (+460) |
| Villanova (2) | 12.6% | 20.4% (+390) |
| Houston (5) | 12.3% | 14.3% (+600) |
| Texas Tech (3) | 11.9% | 14.3% (+600) |
| Purdue (3) | 11.2% | 15.4% (+550) |
Above are the 14 NCAA Tournament teams with higher than a 10% chance to make the Final Four, based on our expert's projections.
The biggest discrepancies are the -7.8% difference between Villanova's 12.6% projected chances and 20.4% implied odds, then the -7.3% difference between Baylor's 25.0% projected chances and 32.30% implied odds.
Meaning, that at least according to our expert's model, there's negative expected value on betting Nova or Baylor to make it to New Orleans.
As for the biggest potential values? Tennessee and UCLA are two of the only three teams with any degree of edge based on the comparison between the projections and odds. (Auburn was the third, with 1.1% better projected chances than implied odds.)
Tennessee has only 14.3% implied odds to make the Final Four, compared to our expert's projected chances of 19.5%, a+5.2% difference. And UCLA has only 11.8% implied odds but 16.6% projected chances, a +4.8% difference.
