You're going to get inundated with data over the next few days in the lead-up to March Madness. But this profitable trend has genuine historical precedent, enough so that it's worthy to put into your back pocket.
Since 2005, every Round of 64 NCAA Tournament team that over 82% of the retail bettors have ridden has failed to cover.
That means the opposing team's spread had just 18% or fewer of the individual bets. And those squads went 8-0 against the spread (ATS).
This data does not incorporate overall money, just the ratio of individual tickets.
Since 2005, all eight of the retail bettors' most popular teams have lost ATS.
So far, as of Wednesday night, The Action Network has detected three games that fit these parameters.
2 March Madness Games That Fit Historically Profitable Trend
- Marquette vs. UNC (Thursday, March 17 at 4:30 p.m. ET)
- Cal State Fullerton vs. Duke (Friday, March 18 at 7:10 p.m. ET)
UNC and Duke have more than 82% of the individual bettors on them to cover.
Of course, this data isn't final. Make sure to stay updated on the aforementioned betting percentages to ensure these games fit this trend's parameters. One way you can do so is by using The Action Network's proprietary tracking data.
This story will also be updated as possible if this dataset moves.
Duke is a 18.5-point favorite and UNC is a 3-point favorite as of Tuesday morning.
Duke has 85% of bettors on it to win by 19 or more points, as opposed to Cal State Fullerton's 15% to cover.
And roughly 85% of the public is also on UNC to beat Marquette by four or more points. Conversely, of course, just 15% of bettors are on Marquette to cover.
As aforementioned, since 2005, all eight Round of 64 teams that have received 82% or more of the individual bettors have failed to cover.
These are those teams, courtesy of The Action Network's data guru Evan Abrams.
Public's Favorite Round of 64 Teams Since 2005
- 89%: 2007 Oregon -8.5 vs. Miami Ohio (ORE 58-56)
- 87%: 2009 Louisville -21.5 vs. Morehead St. (LOU 74-54)
- 85%: 2016 Oklahoma -14.5 vs. Cal State Bakersfield (OU 82-68)
- 85%: 2008 Tennessee -19 vs. American (TENN 72-57)
- 84%: 2009 Memphis -20 vs. Cal State Northridge (MEM 81-70)
- 83%: 2013 Duke -20.5 vs. Albany (DUKE 73-61)
- 83%: 2008 Memphis -26 vs. Texas Arlington (MEM 87-63)
- 82%: 2006 Mich St. -5 vs. George Mason (GM 75-65)
