March Madness rolls on with the Sweet 16 round of the 2022 NCAA Tournament, which tips off Thursday. With only four possible games remaining for each, what are each team's chances of advancing to the Final Four? And what about their chances of winning the national championship?
Based on the model from Director of Predictive Analytics Sean Koerner — whose brackets for the last two tournaments finished in the 99th and 95th percentiles on ESPN — the programs with the best chance to advance to the semifinals in New Orleans are unsurprisingly a pair of No. 1 seeds: Gonzaga (58.3%) and Kansas (15.1%).
The Zags' projected chances of winning the national championship (29.2%) are almost double those of the Jayhawks (15.1%), though.
Purdue (48.2%) has the third-best projected chance to reach the Final Four over Arizona (40.5%), thanks to the teams' respective Sweet 16 draws: Purdue faces the Cinderella of this year's tournament in No. 15 seed Saint Peter's, while Arizona takes on Houston. The Wildcats have the better chances of winning the title, though, with a 14.7% projection compared to the Boilermakers' 9.0% projection.
Below you'll find our expert's full projections for each surviving team, followed by comparisons of his Final Four and championship projections to odds at FanDuel as the Sweet 16 tips off.
March Madness Predictions
Below we've broken out our expert's projected chances for each Sweet 16 team to advance to the Final Four and win the national championship.
| Team | Elite Eight | Final Four | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzaga | 80.6% | 58.3% | 29.2% |
| Kansas | 73.8% | 57.0% | 15.1% |
| Arizona | 60.7% | 40.5% | 14.7% |
| Purdue | 84.1% | 48.2% | 9.0% |
| Villanova | 62.5% | 26.1% | 6.1% |
| Houston | 39.3% | 22.2% | 5.6% |
| UCLA | 59.0% | 30.7% | 4.9% |
| Texas Tech | 50.0% | 17.1% | 4.1% |
| Duke | 50.0% | 17.1% | 4.1% |
| UNC | 41.0% | 17.8% | 1.8% |
| Michigan | 37.5% | 11.3% | 1.5% |
| Providence | 26.2% | 14.3% | 1.1% |
| Arkansas | 19.4% | 7.6% | 1.1% |
| Iowa State | 51.8% | 15.2% | 1.0% |
| Miami | 48.2% | 13.4% | 0.8% |
| Saint Peter's | 15.9% | 3.3% | 0.1% |
Final Four Odds vs. Projections
| Team | Action's Projections | FanDuel Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Gonzaga | 62.3% (-165) | 58.3% |
| Kansas | 66.7% (-200) | 57.0% |
| Arizona | 40% (+150) | 40.5% |
| Purdue | 57.5% (-135) | 48.2% |
| Villanova | 28.6% (+250) | 26.1% |
| Houston | 33.3% (+200) | 22.2% |
| UCLA | 31.3% (+220) | 30.7% |
| Texas Tech | 20% (+400) | 17.1% |
| Duke | 20% (+400) | 17.1% |
| UNC | 21.3% (+370) | 17.8% |
| Michigan | 10.5% (+850) | 11.3% |
| Providence | 13.3% (+650) | 14.3% |
| Arkansas | 9.1% (+1000) | 7.6% |
| Iowa State | 14.3% (+600) | 15.2% |
| Miami | 16.7% (+500) | 13.4% |
| Saint Peter's | 3.2% (+3000) | 3.3% |
Championship Odds vs. Projections
| Team | FanDuel Odds | Action's Projections |
|---|---|---|
| Gonzaga | 29.4% (+240) | 29.2% |
| Kansas | 16.7% (+500) | 15.1% |
| Arizona | 13.3% (+650) | 14.7% |
| Purdue | 11.1% (+800) | 9.0% |
| Villanova | 7.1% (+1300) | 6.1% |
| Houston | 10.5% (+850) | 5.6% |
| UCLA | 6.3% (+1500) | 4.9% |
| Texas Tech | 6.3% (+1500) | 4.1% |
| Duke | 6.3% (+1500) | 4.1% |
| UNC | 3.0% (+3200) | 1.8% |
| Michigan | 1.5% (+6500) | 1.5% |
| Providence | 1.3% (+7500) | 1.1% |
| Arkansas | 2.0% (+5000) | 1.1% |
| Iowa State | 1.0% (+10000) | 1.0% |
| Miami | 1.4% (+7000) | 0.8% |
| Saint Peter's | 0.3% (+35000) | 0.1% |
