Everybody loves March Madness. But let's be honest, who amongst us has been following all 358 teams and knows them inside and out? If you are seeking guidance on filling out your bracket and want to win your office pool or take your friends money, you've come to the right place.
I always wondered how KenPom, the most trusted name in college basketball analytics and forecasting, determined his projected final scores on his FanMatch page.
Through a ton of Google searches, plus some trial and error, I was able to figure out the formula and project out a final score for any Division I college basketball game using each team’s efficiency and tempo numbers.
From there, I use a Pythagorean expectation formula to determine the probability of each team winning based on the projected final score. In the Excel sheet below, you will be able to figure out each team’s win probability for every possible matchup all the way through the National Championship.
However, there are a couple of important notes that you need to read before using this to fill out your bracket:
- DON’T fill everything out based on who has the higher probability. If you’ve been a part of a March Madness pool before, you know that you have to take some chances by either taking a few first-round upsets or pick a dark horse to make the Elite Eight.
- The theory behind win probability is “what is the most likely scenario.” Do not take these percentages as gospel. Instead, use them as a guide.
- Injuries are accounted for in this model, using a version of John Hollinger’s value added formula that has been modified for college basketball. At the bottom of the page, I have included some of the most important players who will miss the NCAA Tournament.
- If a player is designated as questionable, they are included in the win probability as if they are playing. I will update the Excel spreadsheet accordingly once the news of whether a player is playing or not is made official.
Download the Excel file of the bracket with projections here
First Round Probabilities
