And then there were four.
After running my numbers, I've found two Final Four player props to bet before the numbers are gone. I have a unique market in mind for FAU's Johnell Davis, while we're going to fade Miami guard Nijel Pack.
Check out my Final Four picks for FAU vs. San Diego State and Miami vs. UConn below.
Johnell Davis — Most Points Scored (+380, FanDuel)
The first semifinal is going to be a low-scoring game. Both teams rank inside the top 30 in bench minutes, so you could see up to nine players get between 15-30 minutes for each team.
Davis has our highest point projection (13.6%) in this game. Only three other players have a point projection over 10% (two for Florida Atlantic). The only San Diego State player with a projection over 10 is Matt Bradley, who has been held to eight total points over the Aztecs’ last two games. He has seen his playing time go way down, with just 20 total minutes over his last two games.
Davis has the ideal floor/ceiling combo to take down this market. In 11 games since becoming a starter, he’s finished with fewer than 12 points only once. He’s scored at least 15 points in five of those 11 games, and that could be enough to finish as this game’s top scorer.
San Diego State is a great defensive team that ranks 20th in the country in effective field goal percentage (eFG%) allowed.
Where Davis has an edge, though, is his ability to get to the free-throw line, where SDSU can’t defend him. Davis gets to the charity stripe at the highest rate among FAU players and is an 86% shooter when he gets there. That’s where I think he can overcome a tough defense and emerge as this game’s leading scorer.
Based on my simulations, I have Davis finishing as the top scorer 23.8% of the time. A fair line would be closer to +320.
You can find this bet at FanDuel (if your state allows betting on college player props) under the “Player Points” tab at “Top Points Scorer.”
Pick: Johnell Davis — Most Points Scored (+380) |
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Nijel Pack Under 14.5 Points (-120, BetMGM)
Pack has cleared this line in nine of his last 15 games, averaging 15.7 points in that span. Miami’s opponent, UConn, has scored 80.7 points per game as a team in that span.
UConn’s defense is a tougher test than usual for Pack and the Canes, though. The Huskies rank 11th in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency and have a team total of 71.5 for this game. It’s an even tougher matchup for Pack, considering UConn has allowed the eighth-lowest eFG% in the country.
The Huskies also tend to send opponents to the free-throw line at one of the highest rates in the country. Pack tends to get most of his points from the field and doesn’t get to the line very often.
Isaiah Wong, Norchad Omier and Jordan Miller all get to the free-throw line two or three times more often than Pack, which means they should see a slight uptick in scoring.
We’re projecting Pack for closer to 12.5 points in this game with a 61% chance of staying under 14.5.
