It's simple enough, and everyone picks some variety of 12- or 13-seed every year in their brackets, but very few — even among sharps — pull trig on ripping every single ML for those seeds.
And yet, if you had done it for every single Round of 64 game in recent memory, you'd be proudly profitable.
If you had bet $500 on every 12-seed or 13-seed's moneyline since 2008, you'd have returned about $8,500. That's about $566 per tourney for a 14% ROI.
The betting trend is as simple as that. Tail the 12- or 13-seed on the ML for every single contest.
Do keep in mind that variance is your worst enemy as a sports bettor. While this trend has persisted over 15 seasons, the sample size is key — over the long run, you figure to make roughly 14% on investment.
In the short term, a bad bounce or a bad call can turn your fortunes in a jiff. If you're utilizing this betting system, ensure that you execute the same unit sizing in order to maximize returns.
Below is the market-best price — alongside the sportsbook providing it — for each 12- and 13-seed on the docket for the Round of 64.
Markets are as of Thursday afternoon
No. 13 Furman vs. No. 4 Virginia
- +205 at DraftKings
No. 12 Charleston vs. No. 5 San Diego State
- +210 at FanDuel
No. 12 Oral Roberts vs. No. 5 Duke
- +230 at PointsBet
No. 13 Louisiana-Lafayette vs. No. 4 Tennessee
- +480 at DraftKings
No. 12 VCU vs. No. 5 Saint Mary's
- +160 at PointsBet
No. 13 Iona vs. No. 4 UConn
- +375 at BetMGM
No. 12 Drake vs. No. 5 UMiami
- +112 at BetRivers
No. 13 Kent State vs. No. 4 Indiana
- +165 at DraftKings
